The Currency Report
Large Currency Speculators nearly reversed net long Australian dollar positions, cutting 99.5%, the latest CFTC data shows…
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(Commitments of Traders Data)
The latest CFTC data indicates Large Currency Speculators trimmed net long Australian dollar by over 95% in the latest report, on the heels of last week’s 34% decline. Also of interest in this week’s data is a significant build in net shorts of the Euro.
Will we see a reversal to net long Euro and net short US dollar in next weeks or months? We will wait and see, but my suggestion is it will occur sooner rather than later. Note the key 2015 high (1.1718 EUR/USD) on the weekly Euro chart may be tested as this occurs.
Significant percent change moves highlight one of the main goals of this report; which is to keep an eye on what large speculators have been doing over the longer term with their positions, with the assumption that large speculators are positioning in the direction of the longer term trend.
Consider the potential implications for higher commodity prices if large speculators position for a lower US dollar and are correct…(discussion to be continued in upcoming week’s Currency Reports).
Due to the delayed dissemination of this information, this information should in no way be considered in any way as a trade recommendation or advice.
Highlighted Currency, net position and % change
Net Longs Net Shorts
CD +20k, -11% EU -37k, +67%
AD +0.1k, -99.5%
The most recent Commitments of Traders data shows some significant percentage changes in non-commercial futures only net positions from the prior week including the following:
A trimming 11.71% decrease from 22,706 to 20,047 contracts net long of the Canadian dollar, which represents 2.15% of open interest;
A large 14.54% decrease 38,422 to 32,835 contracts net short of the British Pound, which represents 2.29% of open interest;
A small 2.34% decrease from 58,919 to 22,059 contracts long of the Japanese Yen, which represents 0.33 of open interest;
A resilient (not ready to reverse to long yet) 67.77% increase from 22,587 to 37,895 contracts net short of the Euro, which represents 4.37% of open interest;
A vaporizing 95.5% decline from 24,893 to just 124 contracts long the Australian dollar, which represents 21.61% of open interest;
A small but important 7.01% increase from 10,446 to 11,178 contracts net long of the US Dollar Index, which represents 1.19% of open interest;
For those interested in Stock Index Futures, it may be of interest that over the same period large speculators reversed from net short 8,853 to net long 83,422 contracts, a 1042.3% change representing 3.10% of open interest.
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