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The Currency Report

 

The Currency Report  

Large Currency Speculators nearly reversed net long Australian dollar positions, cutting 99.5%, the latest CFTC data shows…

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(Commitments of Traders Data)

The latest CFTC data indicates Large Currency Speculators trimmed net long Australian dollar by over 95% in the latest report, on the heels of last week’s 34% decline.  Also of interest in this week’s data is a significant build in net shorts of the Euro.

Aussie Chart

Will we see a reversal to net long Euro and net short US dollar in next weeks or months? We will wait and see, but my suggestion is it will occur sooner rather than later.  Note the key 2015 high (1.1718 EUR/USD) on the weekly Euro chart may be tested as this occurs.

Euro Chart

Significant percent change moves highlight one of the main goals of this report; which is to keep an eye on what large speculators have been doing over the longer term with their positions, with the assumption that large speculators are positioning in the direction of the longer term trend.

Consider the potential implications for higher commodity prices if large speculators position for a lower US dollar and are correct…(discussion to be continued in upcoming week’s Currency Reports).

Due to the delayed dissemination of this information, this information should in no way be considered in any way as a trade recommendation or advice.

Highlighted Currency, net position and % change

Net Longs                                            Net Shorts

CD +20k, -11%                                   EU -37k, +67%

AD +0.1k, -99.5%

The most recent Commitments of Traders data shows some significant percentage changes in non-commercial futures only net positions from the prior week including the following:

A trimming 11.71% decrease from 22,706 to 20,047 contracts net long of the Canadian dollar, which represents 2.15% of open interest;

A large 14.54% decrease 38,422 to 32,835 contracts net short of the British Pound, which represents 2.29% of open interest;

A small 2.34% decrease from 58,919 to 22,059 contracts long of the Japanese Yen, which represents 0.33 of open interest;

A resilient (not ready to reverse to long yet) 67.77% increase from 22,587 to 37,895 contracts net short of the Euro, which represents 4.37% of open interest;

A vaporizing 95.5% decline from 24,893 to just 124 contracts long the Australian dollar, which represents 21.61% of open interest;

A small but important 7.01% increase from 10,446 to 11,178 contracts net long of the US Dollar Index, which represents 1.19% of open interest;

(Source: www.CFTC.gov)

For those interested in Stock Index Futures, it may be of interest that over the same period large speculators reversed from net short 8,853 to net long 83,422 contracts, a 1042.3% change representing 3.10% of open interest.

For more information on FuturePath Trading, LLC, PhotonTrader and other trading software demos as well as our Futures and Forex Brokerage services email paul@fptrading.net or call 312.987.2080.

Good Trading,

Paul Kavanaugh

There is a substantial risk of loss in trading futures and options. Futures, options and foreign exchange trading are not appropriate for all investors.  Past performance is not indicative of future results. The information and data in this report were obtained from sources considered reliable. Their accuracy or completeness is not guaranteed and the giving of the same is not to be deemed as an offer or solicitation on our part with respect to the sale or purchase of any securities or commodities.  FuturePath Trading, LLC, its officers and directors may in the normal course of business have positions, which may or may not agree with the opinions expressed in this report. Any decision to purchase or sell as a result of the opinions expressed in this report will be the full responsibility of the person authorizing such transaction.

The Currency Report

The Currency Report  

Large Currency Speculators added to net longs in Canadian dollar, latest CFTC data shows…

2016 05 16 CD

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 (Commitments of Traders Data)

The latest CFTC data indicates Large Currency Speculators trimmed net short Euro bets by just 7.4%, while adding to US dollar longs by over 36%.  Will we see a reversal to net long Euro and net short US dollar in next week’s report? We will wait and see, but my suggestion is it will occur sooner rather than later.  Note the key 2015 high (1.1718 EUR/USD) on the weekly Euro chart above may be tested as this occurs.  It is also important to note as well the recent reversal to net long Canadian dollar has held, and that new position grew again this week (by 36%) following last week’s 57% rise.

Significant percent change moves highlight one of the main goals of this report; which is to keep an eye on what large speculators have been doing over the longer term with their positions, with the assumption that large speculators are positioning in the direction of the longer term trend.  Consider the potential implications for higher commodity prices if large speculators position for a lower US dollar and are correct…(discussion to be continued in next week’s Currency Report).

Due to the delayed dissemination of this information, this information should in no way be considered in any way as a trade recommendation or advice.

Highlighted Currency, net position and % change

Net Longs                                            Net Shorts

CD +25k, +36%                  EU -21k, -7.4%

DX +12k, +32%

The most recent Commitments of Traders data shows some significant percentage changes in non-commercial futures only net positions from the prior week including the following:

A most important 36% increase from 18,943 to 25,874 contracts net long of the Canadian dollar, which represents 5.56% of open interest;

A trimming 13.54% decrease from 40,408 to 34,935 contracts net short of the British Pound, which represents 2.29% of open interest;

A small 3.88% decrease from 61,521 to 59,137 contracts long of the Japanese Yen, which represents 1.44% of open interest;

An important 7.40% decrease from 23,619 to 21,872 contracts net short of the Euro, which represents 0.51% of open interest;

A sharp 27.17% decline from 52,395 to 38,158 contracts long the Australian dollar, which represents 11.23% of open interest;

A stubborn 32.08% increase from 9,174 to 12,117 contracts net long of the US Dollar Index, which represents 4.34% of open interest;

(Source: www.CFTC.gov)

For those interested in Stock Index Futures, it may be of interest that over the same period large speculators increased new recent net long positions in E-Mini S&P 500 Stock Index Futures by 95.06% from 10,087 to 19,676 contracts (net long).  Note the similarity of recent short covering and reversal to long in S&P to recent Canadian dollar activity.  Feel free to contact me directly for more specific information.

For more information on FuturePath Trading, LLC, PhotonTrader and other trading software demos as well as our Futures and Forex Brokerage services email paul@fptrading.net or call 312.987.2080.

Good Trading,

Paul Kavanaugh

There is a substantial risk of loss in trading futures and options. Futures, options and foreign exchange trading are not appropriate for all investors.  Past performance is not indicative of future results. The information and data in this report were obtained from sources considered reliable. Their accuracy or completeness is not guaranteed and the giving of the same is not to be deemed as an offer or solicitation on our part with respect to the sale or purchase of any securities or commodities.  FuturePath Trading, LLC, its officers and directors may in the normal course of business have positions, which may or may not agree with the opinions expressed in this report. Any decision to purchase or sell as a result of the opinions expressed in this report will be the full responsibility of the person authorizing such transaction.

The Currency Report

The Currency Report

Large Currency Speculators cut short Euro bets significantly, latest CFTC data shows…

2016 02 22 Euro

(Commitments of Traders Data)

Large Currency Speculators trimmed net short Euro bets (by over 23% for the third week in a row) , while again adding to net longs in Yen.  Trimming of bets short Euro may be indicative of profit taking by large speculators following significant declines since mid-2015, see chart on this page.  It should be highlighted that this weeks’ net short Euro position is just over one third of its reading three weeks ago…

These significant percent change moves highlight one of the main goals of this report; which is to keep an eye on what large speculators have been doing over the longer term with their positions, with the assumption that they large speculators are positioning in the direction of the longer term trend.  That being said, in general that direction appears to be moving further away from remaining net short Euro.

Due to the delayed dissemination of this information, it should in no way be considered in any way as a trade recommendation or advice.

Highlighted Currency, net position and % change

Net Longs                                            Net Shorts

JY +47k, +10%                                    EC -48k, -23%

CD -48k, -23%

The most recent Commitments of Traders data shows some significant percentage changes in non-commercial futures only net positions from the prior week including the following:

A trimming 13.19% decrease from 51,935 to 45,085 contracts net short of the Canadian dollar, which represents 4.32% of open interest;

A 39.94% decrease from 7,268 to 4,366 contracts net short of the Swiss Franc, which represents 5.98% of open interest;

A minor 0.12% decrease from 36,300 to 36,255 contracts net short of the British Pound, which represents 0.02% of open interest;

A significant 10.8% increase from 43,232 to 47,901 contracts long of the Japanese Yen, which represents 1.88% of open interest;

A game changing 23.86% decrease from 63,314 to 48,205 contracts net short of the Euro, which represents 3.51% of open interest;

A trimming 50.11% decrease from 5,626 to 2,807 contracts net short of the Australian Dollar, which represents 2.53% of open interest;

A slimming 10.48% decrease from 35,013 to 31,342 contracts net long of the US Dollar Index, which represents 5.21% of open interest;

(Source: www.CFTC.gov)

For those interested in Stock Index Futures, it may be of interest that over the same period large speculators cut their net short positions in E-Mini S&P 500 Stock Index Futures by 32.23% from 234,321 to 158,805 contracts.  Feel free to contact me directly for more specific information.

For more information on FuturePath Trading, LLC PhotonTrader Software Demos and Futures and Forex Brokerage services email paul@fptrading.net or call 312.987.2080.

Good Trading,

Paul Kavanaugh

There is a substantial risk of loss in trading futures and options. Futures, options and foreign exchange trading are not appropriate for all investors.  Past performance is not indicative of future results. The information and data in this report were obtained from sources considered reliable. Their accuracy or completeness is not guaranteed and the giving of the same is not to be deemed as an offer or solicitation on our part with respect to the sale or purchase of any securities or commodities.  FuturePath Trading, LLC, its officers and directors may in the normal course of business have positions, which may or may not agree with the opinions expressed in this report. Any decision to purchase or sell as a result of the opinions expressed in this report will be the full responsibility of the person authorizing such transaction.

The Currency Report

Large Currency Speculators added to new recent long net positions in Japanese Yen, while remaining net short of commodity currencies including Australian and Canadian dollar, latest CFTC data shows…

Weekly Aussie Chart

(Commitments of Traders Data)

CFTC data released Friday January 15, 2016 shows large currency speculators increased long Yen positions by over 500%, building on last week’s reversal to net long.  This week’s data also showed a 51% decrease in net short positions in the Canadian dollar, which may be indicative of profit taking ahead of this week’s BOC  Jan 20 meeting.

This week’s sharp rise in net long Yen positions highlights one of the main goals of this report; which is to keep an eye on what large speculators are doing over the longer term with their positions, with the assumption that they large speculators are positioning in the direction of the longer term trend.

The existing net short positions in commodity currencies like the Australian and Canadian dollar suggest the weakness in the commodity sector will continue over the near term in my opinion.

The most recent Commitments of Traders data shows some significant percentage changes in non-commercial futures only net positions from the prior week including the following:

A sharp 51.72% decrease from 60,130 to 29,032 contracts net short of the Canadian dollar, which represents 18.70% of open interest;

A small 8.18% decrease from 3,620 to 3,324 contracts net long of the Swiss Franc, which represents 0.64% of open interest;

A miniscule 0.08% increase from 30,496 to 30,521 contracts net short of the British Pound, which represents 0.001% of open interest;

A substantial 510.92% increase from 4,103 to 25,066 contracts of the Japanese Yen, which represents 8.69% of open interest;

A trimming 7.69% decrease from 158,643 to 146,451 contracts net short of the Euro, which represents 3.06% of open interest;

A notable 67.45% increase from 13,761 to 23,043 contracts net short of the Australian Dollar, which represents 7.63% of open interest;

A healthy 4.94% increase from 40,707 to 42,719 contracts net long of the US Dollar Index, which represents 2.72% of open interest;

(Source: www.CFTC.gov)

For those interested in Stock Index Futures, it may be of interest that over the same period large speculators increased their net short positions in E-Mini S&P 500 Stock Index by a massive 59.61% from 104,171 to 162,272 contracts.  Feel free to contact me directly for more specific information.

For more information on FuturePath Trading, LLC PhotonTrader Software Demos and Futures and Forex Brokerage services email paul@fptrading.net or call 312.987.2080.

Good Trading,

Paul Kavanaugh

There is a substantial risk of loss in trading futures and options. Futures, options and foreign exchange trading are not appropriate for all investors.  Past performance is not indicative of future results. The information and data in this report were obtained from sources considered reliable. Their accuracy or completeness is not guaranteed and the giving of the same is not to be deemed as an offer or solicitation on our part with respect to the sale or purchase of any securities or commodities.  FuturePath Trading, LLC, its officers and directors may in the normal course of business have positions, which may or may not agree with the opinions expressed in this report. Any decision to purchase or sell as a result of the opinions expressed in this report will be the full responsibility of the person authorizing such transaction.

The Currency Report

Large Currency Speculators reversed to net long positions in Japanese Yen, while mildly trimming net shorts in Pound, Euro, Canadian and Australian dollar positions, latest CFTC data shows…

2016 01 11 JY

(Commitments of Traders Data)

CFTC data released Friday January 8, 2016 shows large currency speculators reversed to net long positions in Japanese Yen, while mildly trimming net shorts in Pound, Euro, Canadian and Australian dollar positions.  This highlights one of the main goals of this report; which is to keep an eye on what large speculators are doing over the longer term with their positions, with the assumption that they large speculators are positioning in the direction of the longer term trend.

The existing and building net short positions in commodity currencies like the Canadian dollar suggest the weakness in the commodity sector will continue over the near term in my opinion.   The reversal to long Yen net positons is important to follow as it may reflect large speculators are positioning for further gains in the US dollar in yen terms, (in other words, higher yen futures).

The most recent Commitments of Traders data shows some significant percentage changes in non-commercial futures only net positions from the prior week including the following:

A minor 1.05% decrease from 60,787 to 60,130 contracts net short of the Canadian dollar, which represents 1.05% of open interest;

A tiny 1.57% increase from 3,564 to 3620 contracts net long of the Swiss Franc, which represents 0.11% of open interest;

A small 1.70% decrease from 31,022 to 30,496 contracts net short of the British Pound, which represents 0.24% of open interest;

A key 123.82% reversal from short 17,226 to long 4,103 contracts of the Japanese Yen, which represents 9.66% of open interest;

A holding 1.19% decrease from 160,550 to 158,643 contracts net short of the Euro, which represents 0.47% of open interest;

A sizable 21.577% decrease from 17,545 to 13,761 contracts net short of the Australian Dollar, which represents 3.82% of open interest;

A significant 21.10% increase from 33,615 to 40,707  contracts net long of the US Dollar Index, which represents 9.53% of open interest;

(Source: www.CFTC.gov)

For those interested in the Stock Indices, it may be of interest that over the same period large speculators increased their net short positions in E-Mini S&P 500 Stock Index by 7.22% from 97,162 to 104,171 contracts.  Contact me directly for more information.

For more information on FuturePath Trading, LLC PhotonTrader Software Demos and Futures and Forex Brokerage services email paul@fptrading.net or call 312.987.2080.

Good Trading,

Paul Kavanaugh

There is a substantial risk of loss in trading futures and options. Futures, options and foreign exchange trading are not appropriate for all investors.  Past performance is not indicative of future results. The information and data in this report were obtained from sources considered reliable. Their accuracy or completeness is not guaranteed and the giving of the same is not to be deemed as an offer or solicitation on our part with respect to the sale or purchase of any securities or commodities.  FuturePath Trading, LLC, its officers and directors may in the normal course of business have positions, which may or may not agree with the opinions expressed in this report. Any decision to purchase or sell as a result of the opinions expressed in this report will be the full responsibility of the person authorizing such transaction.

The Currency Report

The Currency Report

By Paul Kavanaugh

Large Currency Specs trimmed net short Japanese Yen positions by over 43%, latest CFTC data shows…

2016 01 04 JY

(Commitments of Traders Data)

CFTC data released Monday January 4, 2016 shows large currency speculators trimmed net short Japanese Yen positions by over 43%.  Large specs also maintained significant net short positions in Euro and Canadian dollar as of 12/29/2015.  This highlights one of the main goals of this report which is to keep an eye on what large speculators are doing over the longer term with their positions with the assumption that they large speculators are positioning in the direction of the longer term trend.  The existing and building net short positions in commodity currencies like the Canadian dollar suggest the weakness in the commodity sector will continue over the near term in my opinion.

The most recent Commitments of Traders data shows some significant percentage changes in non-commercial futures only net positions from the prior week including the following:

A steady 8.50% increase from 56,027 to 60,787 contracts net short of the Canadian dollar, which represents 2.77% of open interest;

A large 29.51% increase from 2,752 to 3,564 contracts net long of the Swiss Franc, which represents 1.65% of open interest;

A sharp 16.36% increase from 26,661 to 31,022 contracts net short of the British Pound, which represents 2.14% of open interest;

A surprising 43.27% decrease from 30,367 to 17,226 contracts net short of the Japanese Yen, which represents 6.78% of open interest;

A holding .031% decrease from 161,047 to 160,550 contracts net short of the Euro, which represents 0.12% of open interest;

A healthy 15.87% decrease from 20,854 to 17,545 contracts net short of the Australian Dollar, which represents 3.37% of open interest;

A minor 0.62% increase from 33,407 to 33,615 contracts net long of the US Dollar Index, which represents 0.32% of open interest;

(Source: www.CFTC.gov)
For those interested in the Stock Indices, it may be of interest that over the same period large speculators increased their net short positions in E-Mini S&P 500 Stock Index by 2.04% from 95,219 to 97,162 contracts.  Contact me directly for more information.

For more information on FuturePath Trading, LLC PhotonTrader Software Demos and Futures and Forex Brokerage services please email paul@fptrading.net or call 312.987.2080.

Good Trading,

Paul Kavanaugh

There is a substantial risk of loss in trading futures and options. Futures, options and foreign exchange trading are not appropriate for all investors.  Past performance is not indicative of future results. The information and data in this report were obtained from sources considered reliable. Their accuracy or completeness is not guaranteed and the giving of the same is not to be deemed as an offer or solicitation on our part with respect to the sale or purchase of any securities or commodities.  FuturePath Trading, LLC, its officers and directors may in the normal course of business have positions, which may or may not agree with the opinions expressed in this report. Any decision to purchase or sell as a result of the opinions expressed in this report will be the full responsibility of the person authorizing such transaction.