The Currency Report

The Currency Report

Large Currency Speculators cut back on net short Euro bets by over 30%, while also trimming net shorts in Canadian and Australian dollar, latest CFTC data shows…

2016 02 08 Euro

(Commitments of Traders Data)

Large Currency Speculators cut back on net short Euro bets by over 30%, while also trimming net shorts in Canadian and Australian dollar.  Trimming of bets short Euro, Australian and Canadian dollar may be indicative of profit taking by large speculators following significant declines since mid 2015, see chart above.

These significant percent change moves highlight one of the main goals of this report; which is to keep an eye on what large speculators have been doing over the longer term with their positions, with the assumption that they large speculators are positioning in the direction of the longer term trend.  Due to the delayed dissemination of this information, it should in no way be considered in any way as a trade recommendation or advice.

Highlighted Currency, net position and % change

Net Longs                                            Net Shorts

JY +37k, -25%                                     CD -52k -23%

AD -26k -20%

The most recent Commitments of Traders data shows some significant percentage changes in non-commercial futures only net positions from the prior week including the following:

A significant 23.83% decrease from 66,819 to 52,420 contracts net short of the Canadian dollar, which represents 10.42% of open interest;

A tiny 4.26% increase from 4,503 to 4,695 contracts net short of the Swiss Franc, which represents 0.32% of open interest;

A steady 1.57% decrease from 45,737 to 45,018 contracts net short of the British Pound, which represents 1.57% of open interest;

A sharp 25.55% decrease from 50,026 to 37,245 contracts long of the Japanese Yen, which represents 5.39% of open interest;

A key 31.55% decrease from 127,215 to 87,073 contracts net short of the Euro, which represents 9.94% of open interest;

A trimming 20.21% decrease from 32,798 to 26,168 contracts net short of the Australian Dollar, which represents 5.19% of open interest;

A small 1.46% increase from 44,225 to 44,872 contracts net long of the US Dollar Index, which represents 0

0.85% of open interest;

(Source: www.CFTC.gov)

For those interested in Stock Index Futures, it may be of interest that over the same period large speculators increased their net short positions in E-Mini S&P 500 Stock Index Futures by 71.31% from  131,871 to 225,905 contracts.  Feel free to contact me directly for more specific information.

For more information on FuturePath Trading, LLC PhotonTrader Software Demos and Futures and Forex Brokerage services email paul@fptrading.net or call 312.987.2080.

Good Trading,

Paul Kavanaugh

There is a substantial risk of loss in trading futures and options. Futures, options and foreign exchange trading are not appropriate for all investors.  Past performance is not indicative of future results. The information and data in this report were obtained from sources considered reliable. Their accuracy or completeness is not guaranteed and the giving of the same is not to be deemed as an offer or solicitation on our part with respect to the sale or purchase of any securities or commodities.  FuturePath Trading, LLC, its officers and directors may in the normal course of business have positions, which may or may not agree with the opinions expressed in this report. Any decision to purchase or sell as a result of the opinions expressed in this report will be the full responsibility of the person authorizing such transaction.

  • Paul Kavanaugh
Paul Kavanaugh

About Paul Kavanaugh

Paul Kavanaugh has been active in the commodity markets as an NFA member for 24 years. He specializes in working with clients by providing innovative personalized value-added services. His guidance with regards to risk management has attracted large commercial hedgers. His 2 1/2 decades of experience in navigating commodity bull and bear markets and extremes in volatility, while maintaining an even keel temperament, has made him an appreciated right hand man to select CTAs and professional traders. Paul’s early apprenticeship with one of the more renowned pioneers of systems development and seasonal work landed him position as Senior Analyst for one of the world’s largest clearing firms at the time. His published currency analysis achieved a remarkably broad following. He then branched out to supporting traders through brokerage services, often 24 hours round the clock. Paul has been happy to share his knowledge with new clients. His warm-hearted enthusiasm for both the markets and people provides an old school blend missing in today’s hard and fast world of electronic trading. At the same time, his current affiliation with the long established Independent Brokerage Firm, FuturePath Trading, LLC, allows him to offer clients the resources of multiple Clearing firms and execution platforms. Paul received his degree in Economics from Albion College in Michigan. He has been a frequent contributor to CBS, CNBC, and the WSJ over the years.