The Currency Report

Large Currency Speculators reversed to net long positions in Japanese Yen, while mildly trimming net shorts in Pound, Euro, Canadian and Australian dollar positions, latest CFTC data shows…

2016 01 11 JY

(Commitments of Traders Data)

CFTC data released Friday January 8, 2016 shows large currency speculators reversed to net long positions in Japanese Yen, while mildly trimming net shorts in Pound, Euro, Canadian and Australian dollar positions.  This highlights one of the main goals of this report; which is to keep an eye on what large speculators are doing over the longer term with their positions, with the assumption that they large speculators are positioning in the direction of the longer term trend.

The existing and building net short positions in commodity currencies like the Canadian dollar suggest the weakness in the commodity sector will continue over the near term in my opinion.   The reversal to long Yen net positons is important to follow as it may reflect large speculators are positioning for further gains in the US dollar in yen terms, (in other words, higher yen futures).

The most recent Commitments of Traders data shows some significant percentage changes in non-commercial futures only net positions from the prior week including the following:

A minor 1.05% decrease from 60,787 to 60,130 contracts net short of the Canadian dollar, which represents 1.05% of open interest;

A tiny 1.57% increase from 3,564 to 3620 contracts net long of the Swiss Franc, which represents 0.11% of open interest;

A small 1.70% decrease from 31,022 to 30,496 contracts net short of the British Pound, which represents 0.24% of open interest;

A key 123.82% reversal from short 17,226 to long 4,103 contracts of the Japanese Yen, which represents 9.66% of open interest;

A holding 1.19% decrease from 160,550 to 158,643 contracts net short of the Euro, which represents 0.47% of open interest;

A sizable 21.577% decrease from 17,545 to 13,761 contracts net short of the Australian Dollar, which represents 3.82% of open interest;

A significant 21.10% increase from 33,615 to 40,707  contracts net long of the US Dollar Index, which represents 9.53% of open interest;

(Source: www.CFTC.gov)

For those interested in the Stock Indices, it may be of interest that over the same period large speculators increased their net short positions in E-Mini S&P 500 Stock Index by 7.22% from 97,162 to 104,171 contracts.  Contact me directly for more information.

For more information on FuturePath Trading, LLC PhotonTrader Software Demos and Futures and Forex Brokerage services email paul@fptrading.net or call 312.987.2080.

Good Trading,

Paul Kavanaugh

There is a substantial risk of loss in trading futures and options. Futures, options and foreign exchange trading are not appropriate for all investors.  Past performance is not indicative of future results. The information and data in this report were obtained from sources considered reliable. Their accuracy or completeness is not guaranteed and the giving of the same is not to be deemed as an offer or solicitation on our part with respect to the sale or purchase of any securities or commodities.  FuturePath Trading, LLC, its officers and directors may in the normal course of business have positions, which may or may not agree with the opinions expressed in this report. Any decision to purchase or sell as a result of the opinions expressed in this report will be the full responsibility of the person authorizing such transaction.

Paul Kavanaugh

About Paul Kavanaugh

Paul Kavanaugh has been active in the commodity markets as an NFA member for 24 years. He specializes in working with clients by providing innovative personalized value-added services. His guidance with regards to risk management has attracted large commercial hedgers. His 2 1/2 decades of experience in navigating commodity bull and bear markets and extremes in volatility, while maintaining an even keel temperament, has made him an appreciated right hand man to select CTAs and professional traders.
Paul’s early apprenticeship with one of the more renowned pioneers of systems development and seasonal work landed him position as Senior Analyst for one of the world’s largest clearing firms at the time. His published currency analysis achieved a remarkably broad following. He then branched out to supporting traders through brokerage services, often 24 hours round the clock.
Paul has been happy to share his knowledge with new clients. His warm-hearted enthusiasm for both the markets and people provides an old school blend missing in today’s hard and fast world of electronic trading. At the same time, his current affiliation with the long established Independent Brokerage Firm, FuturePath Trading, LLC, allows him to offer clients the resources of multiple Clearing firms and execution platforms. Paul received his degree in Economics from Albion College in Michigan. He has been a frequent contributor to CBS, CNBC, and the WSJ over the years.

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