The Currency Report

Large Currency Specs nearly doubled net short positions in Australian dollar, while maintaining significant shorts in Canadian dollar, the latest CFTC data shows…

(Canadian Dollar Weekly Continuation Chart Below)

Canadian Dollar

(Commitments of Traders Data)

CFTC data released Monday December 28 shows IMM currency large speculators nearly doubled net short positions in Australian dollar, while maintaining significant shorts in Canadian dollar.  Large specs lowered net longs in US dollar over the same period, which may be a result of end of quarter and end of year profit taking as the US dollar outperformed many asset classes in 2015.  This highlights one of the main goals of this report which is to keep an eye on what large speculators are doing over the longer term with their positions with the assumption that they large speculators are positioning with the longer term trend.  The existing and building net short positions in commodity currencies like Aussie and Canadian suggest further weakness in the commodity sector in my opinion over the near term.

The most recent Commitments of Traders data shows some significant percentage changes in non-commercial futures only net positions from the prior week including the following:

A building 9.84% increase from 51,009 to 56,027 contracts net short of the Canadian dollar, which represents 3.07% of open interest;

A large 41.06% increase from 1,951 to 2,752 contracts net long of the Swiss Franc, which represents 1.59% of open interest;

A huge 57.57% increase from 16,920 to 26,661 contracts net short of the British Pound, which represents 5.01% of open interest;

A solid 14.25% increase from 26,580 to 30,367 contracts net short of the Japanese Yen, which represents 1.92% of open interest;

A holding 0.68% increase from 159,961 to 161,047 contracts net short of the Euro, which represents 0.27% of open interest;

A Most Significant 99.52% increase from 10,402 to 20,854 contracts net short of the Australian Dollar, which represents 9.79% of open interest;

A trimming 9.47% decrease from 36,902 to 33,407 contracts net long of the US Dollar Index, which represents 5.37% of open interest;


Good Trading,

Paul Kavanaugh

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Paul Kavanaugh

About Paul Kavanaugh

Paul Kavanaugh has been active in the commodity markets as an NFA member for 24 years. He specializes in working with clients by providing innovative personalized value-added services. His guidance with regards to risk management has attracted large commercial hedgers. His 2 1/2 decades of experience in navigating commodity bull and bear markets and extremes in volatility, while maintaining an even keel temperament, has made him an appreciated right hand man to select CTAs and professional traders. Paul’s early apprenticeship with one of the more renowned pioneers of systems development and seasonal work landed him position as Senior Analyst for one of the world’s largest clearing firms at the time. His published currency analysis achieved a remarkably broad following. He then branched out to supporting traders through brokerage services, often 24 hours round the clock. Paul has been happy to share his knowledge with new clients. His warm-hearted enthusiasm for both the markets and people provides an old school blend missing in today’s hard and fast world of electronic trading. At the same time, his current affiliation with the long established Independent Brokerage Firm, FuturePath Trading, LLC, allows him to offer clients the resources of multiple Clearing firms and execution platforms. Paul received his degree in Economics from Albion College in Michigan. He has been a frequent contributor to CBS, CNBC, and the WSJ over the years.