The Currency Report

By Paul Kavanaugh

Large Currency Speculators are maintaining large net short British Pound positions, the latest CFTC data shows…

BP Chart

2016 09 02 BP

(Commitments of Traders Data)

Large Currency Speculators are maintaining large net short British Pound positions, the latest CFTC data shows…

The latest CFTC data (released September 2nd) shows Large Specs maintaining the largest net position of the major currencies short in British Pound Sterling, finishing the 10th week of post-Brexit trading near 1.33 Pounds to the US dollar, after testing 1.28 in early July.  This could indicate large speculators (Funds) are remaining positioned for a continuation of the downtrend which began after a peak above 1.71 in July 2014.  The next largest net position in this week’s report is short the Euro, which has had positive correlation to the Pound in recent years.

Significant percent change moves highlight one of the main goals of this report; which is to keep an eye on what large speculators have been doing over the longer term with their positions, with the assumption that large speculators are positioning in the direction of the longer term trend.

Due to the delayed dissemination of this information, this information should in no way be considered in any way as a trade recommendation or trading advice.

Highlighted Currency, net position and % change

Net Longs                                            Net Shorts

CD +22k, +79%                                  BP -92k, -1%

JY +63k, +13%                                    EU -81k, -11%   

The most recent Commitments of Traders data shows some significant percentage changes in non-commercial futures only net positions from the prior week including the following:

A surprising 79.59% increase from 12,473 to 22,400 contracts net long of the Canadian dollar, which represents 7.9% of open interest;

A maintaining short position 1.86% decrease from 94.235 to 92,485 contracts net short of the British Pound, which represents 0.7% of open interest;

A curious 13.67% increase from 56,006 to 63,661 contracts net long of the Japanese Yen, which represents 4.66% of open interest;

A minor 11.44% decrease from 92,508 to 81,925 contracts net short of the Euro, which represents 2.9% of open interest;

A small 3.53% increase from 41,113 to 42,566 contracts short of the Australian dollar, which represents 1.32% of open interest;

A large 9.14% decrease from 16,471 to 14,966 contracts net long of the US Dollar Index, which represents 0.27% of open interest;


For those interested in Stock Index Futures, over the same period large speculators added 29.9% to net longs from 154,011 to 200,055 contracts, representing 1.51% of open interest.

For more information on FuturePath Trading, LLC, PhotonTrader and other trading software demos as well as our Futures and Forex Brokerage services email or call 312.987.2080.

Good Trading,

Paul Kavanaugh

There is a substantial risk of loss in trading futures and options. Futures, options and foreign exchange trading are not appropriate for all investors.  Past performance is not indicative of future results. The information and data in this report were obtained from sources considered reliable. Their accuracy or completeness is not guaranteed and the giving of the same is not to be deemed as an offer or solicitation on our part with respect to the sale or purchase of any securities or commodities.  FuturePath Trading, LLC, its officers and directors may in the normal course of business have positions, which may or may not agree with the opinions expressed in this report. Any decision to purchase or sell as a result of the opinions expressed in this report will be the full responsibility of the person authorizing such transaction.

Paul Kavanaugh

About Paul Kavanaugh

Paul Kavanaugh has been active in the commodity markets as an NFA member for 24 years. He specializes in working with clients by providing innovative personalized value-added services. His guidance with regards to risk management has attracted large commercial hedgers. His 2 1/2 decades of experience in navigating commodity bull and bear markets and extremes in volatility, while maintaining an even keel temperament, has made him an appreciated right hand man to select CTAs and professional traders. Paul’s early apprenticeship with one of the more renowned pioneers of systems development and seasonal work landed him position as Senior Analyst for one of the world’s largest clearing firms at the time. His published currency analysis achieved a remarkably broad following. He then branched out to supporting traders through brokerage services, often 24 hours round the clock. Paul has been happy to share his knowledge with new clients. His warm-hearted enthusiasm for both the markets and people provides an old school blend missing in today’s hard and fast world of electronic trading. At the same time, his current affiliation with the long established Independent Brokerage Firm, FuturePath Trading, LLC, allows him to offer clients the resources of multiple Clearing firms and execution platforms. Paul received his degree in Economics from Albion College in Michigan. He has been a frequent contributor to CBS, CNBC, and the WSJ over the years.