The Currency Report

The Currency Report

Large Currency Speculators added to net long Yen bets, while trimming net long US dollar positions, the latest CFTC data shows…

JY Chart

2016 08 10 Yen

(Commitments of Traders Data)

Large Currency Speculators added to net long Yen bets, while trimming net long US dollar positions, the latest CFTC data shows…

The latest CFTC data (released August 5th) shows Large Specs had increased bets net long Yen by 19.29% even as the Yen on BREXIT flight to quality rally exceeded a 25% linear rise from its December 2015 lows.  This could signal large speculators (Funds) are positioning for a continuation of this impressive uptrend, (weekly Yen continuation chart above).

Significant percent change moves highlight one of the main goals of this report; which is to keep an eye on what large speculators have been doing over the longer term with their positions, with the assumption that large speculators are positioning in the direction of the longer term trend.

Due to the delayed dissemination of this information, this information should in no way be considered in any way as a trade recommendation or trading advice.

Highlighted Currency, net position and % change

Net Longs                                            Net Shorts

DX +17k, -21%                                   EU -104k, -7%

JY +41k, +19%                                                     

The most recent Commitments of Traders data shows some significant percentage changes in non-commercial futures only net positions from the prior week including the following:

A minor 7.41% decrease from 19,180 to 17,758 contracts net long of the Canadian dollar, which represents 1.23% of open interest;

A maintaining short position 2.41% increase from 80,572 to 82,515 contracts net short of the British Pound, which represents 0.83% of open interest;

A surprising and very significant 19.29% increase from 34,958 to 41,700 contracts net long of the Japanese Yen, which represents 4.3% of open interest;

A small 7.18% decrease from 112,600 to 104,516 contracts net short of the Euro, which represents 2.14% of open interest;

A miniscule 0.47% decrease from 31,510 to 31,363 contracts short of the Australian dollar, which represents 0.15% of open interest;

A huge 21.18% decrease from 22,479 to 17,717 contracts long of the US Dollar Index, which represents 8.68% of open interest;


For those interested in Stock Index Futures, over the same period large speculators cut 31.36% of net longs from 162,082 to 111,250 contracts, representing 1.73% of open interest.

For more information on FuturePath Trading, LLC, PhotonTrader and other trading software demos as well as our Futures and Forex Brokerage services email or call 312.987.2080.

Good Trading,

Paul Kavanaugh

There is a substantial risk of loss in trading futures and options. Futures, options and foreign exchange trading are not appropriate for all investors.  Past performance is not indicative of future results. The information and data in this report were obtained from sources considered reliable. Their accuracy or completeness is not guaranteed and the giving of the same is not to be deemed as an offer or solicitation on our part with respect to the sale or purchase of any securities or commodities.  FuturePath Trading, LLC, its officers and directors may in the normal course of business have positions, which may or may not agree with the opinions expressed in this report. Any decision to purchase or sell as a result of the opinions expressed in this report will be the full responsibility of the person authorizing such transaction.

Paul Kavanaugh

About Paul Kavanaugh

Paul Kavanaugh has been active in the commodity markets as an NFA member for 24 years. He specializes in working with clients by providing innovative personalized value-added services. His guidance with regards to risk management has attracted large commercial hedgers. His 2 1/2 decades of experience in navigating commodity bull and bear markets and extremes in volatility, while maintaining an even keel temperament, has made him an appreciated right hand man to select CTAs and professional traders. Paul’s early apprenticeship with one of the more renowned pioneers of systems development and seasonal work landed him position as Senior Analyst for one of the world’s largest clearing firms at the time. His published currency analysis achieved a remarkably broad following. He then branched out to supporting traders through brokerage services, often 24 hours round the clock. Paul has been happy to share his knowledge with new clients. His warm-hearted enthusiasm for both the markets and people provides an old school blend missing in today’s hard and fast world of electronic trading. At the same time, his current affiliation with the long established Independent Brokerage Firm, FuturePath Trading, LLC, allows him to offer clients the resources of multiple Clearing firms and execution platforms. Paul received his degree in Economics from Albion College in Michigan. He has been a frequent contributor to CBS, CNBC, and the WSJ over the years.