The Currency Report

The Currency Report

IMM Currency Speculators cutting short Euro bets for the 4thweek in a row, latest CFTC data shows…

-Large speculators again trimmed net short Euro bets, down significantly from recent near-record levels.

-Large speculators net short positions in Yen may become larger than net short Euro if trend continues.


(Commitments of Traders Data)

CFTC data released Friday June19, 2015 shows large IMM currency speculators cut both short Euro and Yen positions by over 30%, with the Euro net short position dwindling from recent all-time record levels against the US dollar.  Large speculators have held net short positions in most currencies (except Swiss Franc and Australian dollar) according to last week’s report.  Nearly all of these were trimmed (except the Australian dollar) in the most recent data.  The most recent Commitments of Traders data shows some significant percentage changes in non-commercial futures only net positions from the prior week including the following:

A minor 3.45% decrease from 12,720 to 12,281 contracts net short of the Canadian Dollar, which represents 0.37% of open interest;

A sharp 47.10% decrease from 10,129 to 5,358 contracts net long of the Swiss Franc, which represents 24.03% of open interest;

A small 10.05% decrease from 28,277 to 25,434 contracts net short of the British Pound Sterling, which represents 1.94% of open interest;

A massive 30.63% decrease from 116,286 to 80,664 contracts net short of the Japanese Yen, which represents 13.58% of open interest;

A significant 38.98% decrease from 134,974 to 82,357 contracts net short of the Euro, which represents 15.02% of open interest;

An important 128.85% reversal from net long 14,027 to short 4,048 contracts of the Australian Dollar, which represents 15.14% of open interest;

A trimming 15.05% decrease from 62,877 to 53,420 contracts net long of the US Dollar Index, which represents 10.97% of open interest;


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Paul Kavanaugh

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Paul Kavanaugh

About Paul Kavanaugh

Paul Kavanaugh has been active in the commodity markets as an NFA member for 24 years. He specializes in working with clients by providing innovative personalized value-added services. His guidance with regards to risk management has attracted large commercial hedgers. His 2 1/2 decades of experience in navigating commodity bull and bear markets and extremes in volatility, while maintaining an even keel temperament, has made him an appreciated right hand man to select CTAs and professional traders. Paul’s early apprenticeship with one of the more renowned pioneers of systems development and seasonal work landed him position as Senior Analyst for one of the world’s largest clearing firms at the time. His published currency analysis achieved a remarkably broad following. He then branched out to supporting traders through brokerage services, often 24 hours round the clock. Paul has been happy to share his knowledge with new clients. His warm-hearted enthusiasm for both the markets and people provides an old school blend missing in today’s hard and fast world of electronic trading. At the same time, his current affiliation with the long established Independent Brokerage Firm, FuturePath Trading, LLC, allows him to offer clients the resources of multiple Clearing firms and execution platforms. Paul received his degree in Economics from Albion College in Michigan. He has been a frequent contributor to CBS, CNBC, and the WSJ over the years.