The Currency Report

The Currency Report

Large Currency Speculators reversed to net long Canadian dollar, following last week’s over 41% cut in shorts.  In addition, Large Specs increased net short positions in Euro by over 51%, latest CFTC data shows…

2016 04 11 CD


(Commitments of Traders Data)

The latest CFTC data indicates Large Currency Speculators reversed to net long Canadian dollar, following last week’s over 41% cut in shorts.  In addition, Large Specs increased net short positions in Euro by over 51%.  Significant percent change moves highlight one of the main goals of this report; which is to keep an eye on what large speculators have been doing over the longer term with their positions, with the assumption that large speculators are positioning in the direction of the longer term trend.

I have written repeatedly that the ‘sleeper data’ recently in my opinion in this report has been the clear trend of short covering by large specs in Canadian dollar.  Last week I stated, “Continuing declines in net short positions by large specs in this ‘Commodity Currency’ may be indicative of short covering/profit taking following the declines we have seen since July 2015”.

The most recent data shows large speculators have now reversed to net long Canadian dollar, coincident with the significant strength commodity traders may be noting recently in Crude Oil.  If we see an increase in net long Canadian dollar positions in the next report, this could indicate further upside potential expected by large speculators.

Due to the delayed dissemination of this information, this information should in no way be considered in any way as a trade recommendation or advice.

Highlighted Currency, net position and % change

Net Longs                                            Net Shorts

CD +0.097k, +101%                                          EU -96k, +51%

JY +60k, +10%

The most recent Commitments of Traders data shows some significant percentage changes in non-commercial futures only net positions from the prior week including the following:

A most significant 101.57% Reversal to net long 97 from net short 6,180 contracts of the Canadian dollar, which represents 5.96% of open interest;

A minor 1.13% decrease from 40,028 to 39574 contracts net short of the British Pound, which represents 0.18% of open interest;

A strong 10.45% increase from 54,387 to 60,073 contracts long of the Japanese Yen, which represents 3.41% of open interest;

A massive 51.17% increase from 63,811 to 96,464 contracts net short of the Euro, which represents 9.65% of open interest;

A large 14.4% increase from 23466 to 26,845 contracts long the Australian dollar, which represents 2.79% of open interest;

A small 2.45% decrease from 17,750 to 17,315 contracts net long of the US Dollar Index, which represents 0.77% of open interest;


For those interested in Stock Index Futures, it may be of interest that over the same period large speculators trimmed their net short positions in E-Mini S&P 500 Stock Index Futures by 15.21% from 122,907 to 104,210 contracts.  Note the similarity of short covering in S&P to recent Canadian dollar activity.  Feel free to contact me directly for more specific information.

For more information on FuturePath Trading, LLC, PhotonTrader and other trading software demos as well as our Futures and Forex Brokerage services email or call 312.987.2080.

Good Trading,

Paul Kavanaugh

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There is a substantial risk of loss in trading futures and options. Futures, options and foreign exchange trading are not appropriate for all investors.  Past performance is not indicative of future results. The information and data in this report were obtained from sources considered reliable. Their accuracy or completeness is not guaranteed and the giving of the same is not to be deemed as an offer or solicitation on our part with respect to the sale or purchase of any securities or commodities.  FuturePath Trading, LLC, its officers and directors may in the normal course of business have positions, which may or may not agree with the opinions expressed in this report. Any decision to purchase or sell as a result of the opinions expressed in this report will be the full responsibility of the person authorizing such transaction.



Paul Kavanaugh

About Paul Kavanaugh

Paul Kavanaugh has been active in the commodity markets as an NFA member for 24 years. He specializes in working with clients by providing innovative personalized value-added services. His guidance with regards to risk management has attracted large commercial hedgers. His 2 1/2 decades of experience in navigating commodity bull and bear markets and extremes in volatility, while maintaining an even keel temperament, has made him an appreciated right hand man to select CTAs and professional traders. Paul’s early apprenticeship with one of the more renowned pioneers of systems development and seasonal work landed him position as Senior Analyst for one of the world’s largest clearing firms at the time. His published currency analysis achieved a remarkably broad following. He then branched out to supporting traders through brokerage services, often 24 hours round the clock. Paul has been happy to share his knowledge with new clients. His warm-hearted enthusiasm for both the markets and people provides an old school blend missing in today’s hard and fast world of electronic trading. At the same time, his current affiliation with the long established Independent Brokerage Firm, FuturePath Trading, LLC, allows him to offer clients the resources of multiple Clearing firms and execution platforms. Paul received his degree in Economics from Albion College in Michigan. He has been a frequent contributor to CBS, CNBC, and the WSJ over the years.