The Currency Report

The Currency Report

Large Currency Speculators cut net short positions in Canadian dollar by over 41%, latest CFTC data shows…

2016 04 04 CD

(Commitments of Traders Data)

The latest CFTC data indicates Large Currency Speculators cut net short positions in Canadian dollar by over 41%.  Significant percent change moves highlight one of the main goals of this report; which is to keep an eye on what large speculators have been doing over the longer term with their positions, with the assumption that large speculators are positioning in the direction of the longer term trend.

The sleeper data in this report in my opinion AGAIN is the Canadian dollar, which showed net shorts declined by 41% this week, following 17% the last week, and ahead of that by 34% the week prior to that.  Continuing declines in net short positions by large specs in this ‘Commodity Currency’ may be indicative of short covering/profit taking following the declines we have seen since July 2015.

Due to the delayed dissemination of this information, this information should in no way be considered in any way as a trade recommendation or advice.

Highlighted Currency, net position and % change

Net Longs                                            Net Shorts

JY +54k, +1.95%                                CD -6k, -41%

DA +23k, +30%                              BP -40k, 6.11%

The most recent Commitments of Traders data shows some significant percentage changes in non-commercial futures only net positions from the prior week including the following:

A stunning 41.18% decrease from 15,009 to 6,180 contracts net short of the Canadian dollar, which represents 8.73% of open interest;

A minor 6.11% increase from 37,723 to 40,028 contracts net short of the British Pound, which represents 0.92% of open interest;

A tiny 1.95% increase from 53,346 to 54,387 contracts long of the Japanese Yen, which represents 0.7% of open interest;

A paltry 3.39% decrease from 66,053 to 63,811 contracts net short of the Euro, which represents 0.68% of open interest;

A huge 30.12% increase from 18,030 to 23466 contracts long the Australian dollar, which represents 4.54% of open interest;

A miniscule 0.43% increase from 17,674 to 17,750 contracts net long of the US Dollar Index, which represents 0.43% of open interest;


For those interested in Stock Index Futures, it may be of interest that over the same period large speculators trimmed sharply their net short positions in E-Mini S&P 500 Stock Index Futures by a substantial 16.62% from 146,429 to 122,907 contracts.  Feel free to contact me directly for more specific information.

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Good Trading,

Paul Kavanaugh

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There is a substantial risk of loss in trading futures and options. Futures, options and foreign exchange trading are not appropriate for all investors.  Past performance is not indicative of future results. The information and data in this report were obtained from sources considered reliable. Their accuracy or completeness is not guaranteed and the giving of the same is not to be deemed as an offer or solicitation on our part with respect to the sale or purchase of any securities or commodities.  FuturePath Trading, LLC, its officers and directors may in the normal course of business have positions, which may or may not agree with the opinions expressed in this report. Any decision to purchase or sell as a result of the opinions expressed in this report will be the full responsibility of the person authorizing such transaction.

Paul Kavanaugh

About Paul Kavanaugh

Paul Kavanaugh has been active in the commodity markets as an NFA member for 24 years. He specializes in working with clients by providing innovative personalized value-added services. His guidance with regards to risk management has attracted large commercial hedgers. His 2 1/2 decades of experience in navigating commodity bull and bear markets and extremes in volatility, while maintaining an even keel temperament, has made him an appreciated right hand man to select CTAs and professional traders. Paul’s early apprenticeship with one of the more renowned pioneers of systems development and seasonal work landed him position as Senior Analyst for one of the world’s largest clearing firms at the time. His published currency analysis achieved a remarkably broad following. He then branched out to supporting traders through brokerage services, often 24 hours round the clock. Paul has been happy to share his knowledge with new clients. His warm-hearted enthusiasm for both the markets and people provides an old school blend missing in today’s hard and fast world of electronic trading. At the same time, his current affiliation with the long established Independent Brokerage Firm, FuturePath Trading, LLC, allows him to offer clients the resources of multiple Clearing firms and execution platforms. Paul received his degree in Economics from Albion College in Michigan. He has been a frequent contributor to CBS, CNBC, and the WSJ over the years.