The Currency Report

The Currency Report

Large Currency Speculators sharply increased net positions short British Pound while adding to net longs in Japanese Yen, latest CFTC data shows…

2016 03 28 CD

(Commitments of Traders Data)

The latest CFTC data Large Currency Speculators sharply increased net positions short British Pound while adding to net longs in Japanese Yen.  Significant percent change moves highlight one of the main goals of this report; which is to keep an eye on what large speculators have been doing over the longer term with their positions, with the assumption that large speculators are positioning in the direction of the longer term trend.

The sleeper data in this report in my opinion is the Canadian dollar, which showed net shorts declined 17% this week, following last week’s 34% decline.  Continuing declines in net short positions by large specs in this ‘Commodity Currency’ may be indicative of short covering/profit taking following the declines we have seen since July 2015.

Due to the delayed dissemination of this information, this information should in no way be considered in any way as a trade recommendation or advice.

Highlighted Currency, net position and % change

Net Longs                                            Net Shorts

JY +53k, +17%                                    CD -15k, -20%

DA +18k, +9%                                    BP -37k, +176%

The most recent Commitments of Traders data shows some significant percentage changes in non-commercial futures only net positions from the prior week including the following:

A solid 20.28% decrease from 16,826 to 15,009 contracts net short of the Canadian dollar, which represents 3.86% of open interest;

A massive 176% increase from 13,619 to 37,723 contracts net short of the British Pound, which represents 9.79% of open interest;

A building 17.27% increase from 45,489 to 53,346 contracts long of the Japanese Yen, which represents 5.37% of open interest;

A trimming 14.83% decrease from 77,555 to 66,053 contracts net short of the Euro, which represents 3.55% of open interest;

A minor 9.85% increase from 16,413 to 18,030 contracts long the Australian dollar, which represents 1.45% of open interest;

A minor 0.93% increase from 17,511 to 17,674 contracts net long of the US Dollar Index, which represents 0.31% of open interest;


For those interested in Stock Index Futures, it may be of interest that over the same period large speculators trimmed sharply their net short positions in E-Mini S&P 500 Stock Index Futures by 28.9% from 205,945 to 146,429 contracts.  Feel free to contact me directly for more specific information.

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Good Trading,

Paul Kavanaugh

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There is a substantial risk of loss in trading futures and options. Futures, options and foreign exchange trading are not appropriate for all investors.  Past performance is not indicative of future results. The information and data in this report were obtained from sources considered reliable. Their accuracy or completeness is not guaranteed and the giving of the same is not to be deemed as an offer or solicitation on our part with respect to the sale or purchase of any securities or commodities.  FuturePath Trading, LLC, its officers and directors may in the normal course of business have positions, which may or may not agree with the opinions expressed in this report. Any decision to purchase or sell as a result of the opinions expressed in this report will be the full responsibility of the person authorizing such transaction.



Paul Kavanaugh

About Paul Kavanaugh

Paul Kavanaugh has been active in the commodity markets as an NFA member for 24 years. He specializes in working with clients by providing innovative personalized value-added services. His guidance with regards to risk management has attracted large commercial hedgers. His 2 1/2 decades of experience in navigating commodity bull and bear markets and extremes in volatility, while maintaining an even keel temperament, has made him an appreciated right hand man to select CTAs and professional traders. Paul’s early apprenticeship with one of the more renowned pioneers of systems development and seasonal work landed him position as Senior Analyst for one of the world’s largest clearing firms at the time. His published currency analysis achieved a remarkably broad following. He then branched out to supporting traders through brokerage services, often 24 hours round the clock. Paul has been happy to share his knowledge with new clients. His warm-hearted enthusiasm for both the markets and people provides an old school blend missing in today’s hard and fast world of electronic trading. At the same time, his current affiliation with the long established Independent Brokerage Firm, FuturePath Trading, LLC, allows him to offer clients the resources of multiple Clearing firms and execution platforms. Paul received his degree in Economics from Albion College in Michigan. He has been a frequent contributor to CBS, CNBC, and the WSJ over the years.