The Currency Report

The Currency Report

Large Currency Speculators remain net short British Pound, latest CFTC data shows…

2016 02 29 BP

(Commitments of Traders Data)

Large Currency Speculators remain net short British Pound, while again adding to net longs in Yen.  The latest data showed a minor 8% decline in net short Sterling positions, which could simply be indicative of end of month position squaring.  According to the Wall Street Journal, the Pound sank to a 7 year low last week on the prospect of the UK leaving the European Union (‘Brexit ’ Fears).

Significant percent change moves highlight one of the main goals of this report; which is to keep an eye on what large speculators have been doing over the longer term with their positions, with the assumption that they large speculators are positioning in the direction of the longer term trend.  That being said, in general that direction appears to include remaining net short British Pound.

Due to the delayed dissemination of this information, it should in no way be considered in any way as a trade recommendation or advice.

Highlighted Currency, net position and % change

Net Longs                                            Net Shorts

JY +52k, +10%                                    EC -46k, -2.8%

CD -36k, -18%

The most recent Commitments of Traders data shows some significant percentage changes in non-commercial futures only net positions from the prior week including the following:

A trimming 18.07% decrease from 45,085 to 36,940 contracts net short of the Canadian dollar, which represents 5.16% of open interest;

A 46.77% decrease from 4,366 to 2,321 contracts net short of the Swiss Franc, which represents 4.85% of open interest;

A minor 8.79% decrease from 36,255 to 33,068 contracts net short of the British Pound, which represents 1.24% of open interest;

A significant 10.09% increase from 47,901 to 52,734 contracts long of the Japanese Yen, which represents 1.88% of open interest;

A steady 2.80% decrease from 48,205 to 46,857 contracts net short of the Euro, which represents 0.32% of open interest;

A reversing 441.11% increase from short 2,807 to long 9,575 contracts net of the Australian Dollar, which represents 10.36% of open interest;

A small 6.12% decrease from 31,342 to 29,425 contracts net long of the US Dollar Index, which represents 2.77% of open interest;


For those interested in Stock Index Futures, it may be of interest that over the same period large speculators increased their net short positions in E-Mini S&P 500 Stock Index Futures by 31.06% from 158,805 to 208,122 contracts.  Feel free to contact me directly for more specific information.

For more information on FuturePath Trading, LLC PhotonTrader Software Demos and Futures and Forex Brokerage services email or call 312.987.2080.

Good Trading,

Paul Kavanaugh

There is a substantial risk of loss in trading futures and options. Futures, options and foreign exchange trading are not appropriate for all investors.  Past performance is not indicative of future results. The information and data in this report were obtained from sources considered reliable. Their accuracy or completeness is not guaranteed and the giving of the same is not to be deemed as an offer or solicitation on our part with respect to the sale or purchase of any securities or commodities.  FuturePath Trading, LLC, its officers and directors may in the normal course of business have positions, which may or may not agree with the opinions expressed in this report. Any decision to purchase or sell as a result of the opinions expressed in this report will be the full responsibility of the person authorizing such transaction.

Paul Kavanaugh

About Paul Kavanaugh

Paul Kavanaugh has been active in the commodity markets as an NFA member for 24 years. He specializes in working with clients by providing innovative personalized value-added services. His guidance with regards to risk management has attracted large commercial hedgers. His 2 1/2 decades of experience in navigating commodity bull and bear markets and extremes in volatility, while maintaining an even keel temperament, has made him an appreciated right hand man to select CTAs and professional traders. Paul’s early apprenticeship with one of the more renowned pioneers of systems development and seasonal work landed him position as Senior Analyst for one of the world’s largest clearing firms at the time. His published currency analysis achieved a remarkably broad following. He then branched out to supporting traders through brokerage services, often 24 hours round the clock. Paul has been happy to share his knowledge with new clients. His warm-hearted enthusiasm for both the markets and people provides an old school blend missing in today’s hard and fast world of electronic trading. At the same time, his current affiliation with the long established Independent Brokerage Firm, FuturePath Trading, LLC, allows him to offer clients the resources of multiple Clearing firms and execution platforms. Paul received his degree in Economics from Albion College in Michigan. He has been a frequent contributor to CBS, CNBC, and the WSJ over the years.