The Currency Report

The Currency Report

Large Currency Speculators cut short Euro bets significantly, latest CFTC data shows…

2016 02 22 Euro

(Commitments of Traders Data)

Large Currency Speculators trimmed net short Euro bets (by over 23% for the third week in a row) , while again adding to net longs in Yen.  Trimming of bets short Euro may be indicative of profit taking by large speculators following significant declines since mid-2015, see chart on this page.  It should be highlighted that this weeks’ net short Euro position is just over one third of its reading three weeks ago…

These significant percent change moves highlight one of the main goals of this report; which is to keep an eye on what large speculators have been doing over the longer term with their positions, with the assumption that they large speculators are positioning in the direction of the longer term trend.  That being said, in general that direction appears to be moving further away from remaining net short Euro.

Due to the delayed dissemination of this information, it should in no way be considered in any way as a trade recommendation or advice.

Highlighted Currency, net position and % change

Net Longs                                            Net Shorts

JY +47k, +10%                                    EC -48k, -23%

CD -48k, -23%

The most recent Commitments of Traders data shows some significant percentage changes in non-commercial futures only net positions from the prior week including the following:

A trimming 13.19% decrease from 51,935 to 45,085 contracts net short of the Canadian dollar, which represents 4.32% of open interest;

A 39.94% decrease from 7,268 to 4,366 contracts net short of the Swiss Franc, which represents 5.98% of open interest;

A minor 0.12% decrease from 36,300 to 36,255 contracts net short of the British Pound, which represents 0.02% of open interest;

A significant 10.8% increase from 43,232 to 47,901 contracts long of the Japanese Yen, which represents 1.88% of open interest;

A game changing 23.86% decrease from 63,314 to 48,205 contracts net short of the Euro, which represents 3.51% of open interest;

A trimming 50.11% decrease from 5,626 to 2,807 contracts net short of the Australian Dollar, which represents 2.53% of open interest;

A slimming 10.48% decrease from 35,013 to 31,342 contracts net long of the US Dollar Index, which represents 5.21% of open interest;


For those interested in Stock Index Futures, it may be of interest that over the same period large speculators cut their net short positions in E-Mini S&P 500 Stock Index Futures by 32.23% from 234,321 to 158,805 contracts.  Feel free to contact me directly for more specific information.

For more information on FuturePath Trading, LLC PhotonTrader Software Demos and Futures and Forex Brokerage services email or call 312.987.2080.

Good Trading,

Paul Kavanaugh

There is a substantial risk of loss in trading futures and options. Futures, options and foreign exchange trading are not appropriate for all investors.  Past performance is not indicative of future results. The information and data in this report were obtained from sources considered reliable. Their accuracy or completeness is not guaranteed and the giving of the same is not to be deemed as an offer or solicitation on our part with respect to the sale or purchase of any securities or commodities.  FuturePath Trading, LLC, its officers and directors may in the normal course of business have positions, which may or may not agree with the opinions expressed in this report. Any decision to purchase or sell as a result of the opinions expressed in this report will be the full responsibility of the person authorizing such transaction.

Paul Kavanaugh

About Paul Kavanaugh

Paul Kavanaugh has been active in the commodity markets as an NFA member for 24 years. He specializes in working with clients by providing innovative personalized value-added services. His guidance with regards to risk management has attracted large commercial hedgers. His 2 1/2 decades of experience in navigating commodity bull and bear markets and extremes in volatility, while maintaining an even keel temperament, has made him an appreciated right hand man to select CTAs and professional traders. Paul’s early apprenticeship with one of the more renowned pioneers of systems development and seasonal work landed him position as Senior Analyst for one of the world’s largest clearing firms at the time. His published currency analysis achieved a remarkably broad following. He then branched out to supporting traders through brokerage services, often 24 hours round the clock. Paul has been happy to share his knowledge with new clients. His warm-hearted enthusiasm for both the markets and people provides an old school blend missing in today’s hard and fast world of electronic trading. At the same time, his current affiliation with the long established Independent Brokerage Firm, FuturePath Trading, LLC, allows him to offer clients the resources of multiple Clearing firms and execution platforms. Paul received his degree in Economics from Albion College in Michigan. He has been a frequent contributor to CBS, CNBC, and the WSJ over the years.