Tag : Paul Kavanaugh

The Currency Report

By Paul Kavanaugh

Large Currency Speculators are maintaining large net short British Pound positions, the latest CFTC data shows…

BP Chart

2016 09 02 BP

(Commitments of Traders Data)

Large Currency Speculators are maintaining large net short British Pound positions, the latest CFTC data shows…

The latest CFTC data (released September 2nd) shows Large Specs maintaining the largest net position of the major currencies short in British Pound Sterling, finishing the 10th week of post-Brexit trading near 1.33 Pounds to the US dollar, after testing 1.28 in early July.  This could indicate large speculators (Funds) are remaining positioned for a continuation of the downtrend which began after a peak above 1.71 in July 2014.  The next largest net position in this week’s report is short the Euro, which has had positive correlation to the Pound in recent years.

Significant percent change moves highlight one of the main goals of this report; which is to keep an eye on what large speculators have been doing over the longer term with their positions, with the assumption that large speculators are positioning in the direction of the longer term trend.

Due to the delayed dissemination of this information, this information should in no way be considered in any way as a trade recommendation or trading advice.

Highlighted Currency, net position and % change

Net Longs                                            Net Shorts

CD +22k, +79%                                  BP -92k, -1%

JY +63k, +13%                                    EU -81k, -11%   

The most recent Commitments of Traders data shows some significant percentage changes in non-commercial futures only net positions from the prior week including the following:

A surprising 79.59% increase from 12,473 to 22,400 contracts net long of the Canadian dollar, which represents 7.9% of open interest;

A maintaining short position 1.86% decrease from 94.235 to 92,485 contracts net short of the British Pound, which represents 0.7% of open interest;

A curious 13.67% increase from 56,006 to 63,661 contracts net long of the Japanese Yen, which represents 4.66% of open interest;

A minor 11.44% decrease from 92,508 to 81,925 contracts net short of the Euro, which represents 2.9% of open interest;

A small 3.53% increase from 41,113 to 42,566 contracts short of the Australian dollar, which represents 1.32% of open interest;

A large 9.14% decrease from 16,471 to 14,966 contracts net long of the US Dollar Index, which represents 0.27% of open interest;

(Source: www.CFTC.gov)

For those interested in Stock Index Futures, over the same period large speculators added 29.9% to net longs from 154,011 to 200,055 contracts, representing 1.51% of open interest.

For more information on FuturePath Trading, LLC, PhotonTrader and other trading software demos as well as our Futures and Forex Brokerage services email paul@fptrading.net or call 312.987.2080.

Good Trading,

Paul Kavanaugh

There is a substantial risk of loss in trading futures and options. Futures, options and foreign exchange trading are not appropriate for all investors.  Past performance is not indicative of future results. The information and data in this report were obtained from sources considered reliable. Their accuracy or completeness is not guaranteed and the giving of the same is not to be deemed as an offer or solicitation on our part with respect to the sale or purchase of any securities or commodities.  FuturePath Trading, LLC, its officers and directors may in the normal course of business have positions, which may or may not agree with the opinions expressed in this report. Any decision to purchase or sell as a result of the opinions expressed in this report will be the full responsibility of the person authorizing such transaction.

The Currency Report

The Currency Report

Large Currency Speculators added to net long Yen bets, while trimming net long US dollar positions, the latest CFTC data shows…

JY Chart

2016 08 10 Yen

(Commitments of Traders Data)

Large Currency Speculators added to net long Yen bets, while trimming net long US dollar positions, the latest CFTC data shows…

The latest CFTC data (released August 5th) shows Large Specs had increased bets net long Yen by 19.29% even as the Yen on BREXIT flight to quality rally exceeded a 25% linear rise from its December 2015 lows.  This could signal large speculators (Funds) are positioning for a continuation of this impressive uptrend, (weekly Yen continuation chart above).

Significant percent change moves highlight one of the main goals of this report; which is to keep an eye on what large speculators have been doing over the longer term with their positions, with the assumption that large speculators are positioning in the direction of the longer term trend.

Due to the delayed dissemination of this information, this information should in no way be considered in any way as a trade recommendation or trading advice.

Highlighted Currency, net position and % change

Net Longs                                            Net Shorts

DX +17k, -21%                                   EU -104k, -7%

JY +41k, +19%                                                     

The most recent Commitments of Traders data shows some significant percentage changes in non-commercial futures only net positions from the prior week including the following:

A minor 7.41% decrease from 19,180 to 17,758 contracts net long of the Canadian dollar, which represents 1.23% of open interest;

A maintaining short position 2.41% increase from 80,572 to 82,515 contracts net short of the British Pound, which represents 0.83% of open interest;

A surprising and very significant 19.29% increase from 34,958 to 41,700 contracts net long of the Japanese Yen, which represents 4.3% of open interest;

A small 7.18% decrease from 112,600 to 104,516 contracts net short of the Euro, which represents 2.14% of open interest;

A miniscule 0.47% decrease from 31,510 to 31,363 contracts short of the Australian dollar, which represents 0.15% of open interest;

A huge 21.18% decrease from 22,479 to 17,717 contracts long of the US Dollar Index, which represents 8.68% of open interest;

(Source: www.CFTC.gov)

For those interested in Stock Index Futures, over the same period large speculators cut 31.36% of net longs from 162,082 to 111,250 contracts, representing 1.73% of open interest.

For more information on FuturePath Trading, LLC, PhotonTrader and other trading software demos as well as our Futures and Forex Brokerage services email paul@fptrading.net or call 312.987.2080.

Good Trading,

Paul Kavanaugh

There is a substantial risk of loss in trading futures and options. Futures, options and foreign exchange trading are not appropriate for all investors.  Past performance is not indicative of future results. The information and data in this report were obtained from sources considered reliable. Their accuracy or completeness is not guaranteed and the giving of the same is not to be deemed as an offer or solicitation on our part with respect to the sale or purchase of any securities or commodities.  FuturePath Trading, LLC, its officers and directors may in the normal course of business have positions, which may or may not agree with the opinions expressed in this report. Any decision to purchase or sell as a result of the opinions expressed in this report will be the full responsibility of the person authorizing such transaction.

The Currency Report

Large Currency Speculators increased bets net short British Pound and Euro, while adding to net long US dollar positions, the latest CFTC data shows…

BP Chart

Note; if you would like a demo of the CQG Q-Trader software used to produce these charts, please contact me directly at paul@fprading.net thank you.

2016 08 02 BP

(Commitments of Traders Data)

Large Currency Speculators increased bets net short British Pound and Euro, while adding to net long US dollar positions, the latest CFTC data shows…

The latest CFTC data (released Friday July 29th) shows Large Specs had increased bets net short British Pound by over 8%, net short Euro bets by over 12% and net longs in the US dollar by over 54%.  Such has been the trend in general since BREXIT, large specs becoming longer of the dollar and more short in British Pound Sterling and Euro.

Significant percent change moves highlight one of the main goals of this report; which is to keep an eye on what large speculators have been doing over the longer term with their positions, with the assumption that large speculators are positioning in the direction of the longer term trend.

Due to the delayed dissemination of this information, this information should in no way be considered in any way as a trade recommendation or advice.

Highlighted Currency, net position and % change

Net Longs                                            Net Shorts

DX +22k, +54%                                 EU -112k, +12%

                                                                BP -80k, +8%

The most recent Commitments of Traders data shows some significant percentage changes in non-commercial futures only net positions from the prior week including the following:

An important 13.09% decrease from 22,068 to 19,180 contracts net long of the Canadian dollar, which represents 2.45% of open interest;

A building 8.32% increase from 74,386 to 80,572 contracts net short of the British Pound, which represents 2.67% of open interest;

A minor 11.17% decrease from 39,353 to 34,958 contracts long of the Japanese Yen, which represents 2.75% of open interest;

A key 12.72% increase from 99,891 to 112,600 contracts net short of the Euro, which represents 3.18% of open interest;

A small 5.75% decrease from 33,431 to 31,510 contracts short of the Australian dollar, which represents 2.01% of open interest;

A half again 54.75% increase from 14,526 to 22,479 contracts long of the US Dollar Index, which represents 12.6% of open interest;

(Source: www.CFTC.gov)

For those interested in Stock Index Futures, over the same period large speculators added 10.84% to net longs from 146,232 to 162,082 contracts, representing 0.53% of open interest.

For more information on FuturePath Trading, LLC, PhotonTrader and other trading software demos as well as our Futures and Forex Brokerage services email paul@fptrading.net or call 312.987.2080.

Good Trading,

Paul Kavanaugh

There is a substantial risk of loss in trading futures and options. Futures, options and foreign exchange trading are not appropriate for all investors.  Past performance is not indicative of future results. The information and data in this report were obtained from sources considered reliable. Their accuracy or completeness is not guaranteed and the giving of the same is not to be deemed as an offer or solicitation on our part with respect to the sale or purchase of any securities or commodities.  FuturePath Trading, LLC, its officers and directors may in the normal course of business have positions, which may or may not agree with the opinions expressed in this report. Any decision to purchase or sell as a result of the opinions expressed in this report will be the full responsibility of the person authorizing such transaction.

The Currency Report

The Currency Report  

Large Currency Speculators added to net longs in Canadian dollar, latest CFTC data shows…

2016 05 16 CD

Webinar Invitation

Linda Raschke Leader-Follower Program-Q&A Session 

 

(Click or paste below link into your browser to Register)

https://attendee.gotowebinar.com/register/5393941637163148034

Webinar Invitation  Check out FuturePath Trading’s New Linda Raschke Leader-Follower Program Specs, click or paste the link below in your browser

http://get.worldcupadvisors.com/raschke579/

 (Commitments of Traders Data)

The latest CFTC data indicates Large Currency Speculators trimmed net short Euro bets by just 7.4%, while adding to US dollar longs by over 36%.  Will we see a reversal to net long Euro and net short US dollar in next week’s report? We will wait and see, but my suggestion is it will occur sooner rather than later.  Note the key 2015 high (1.1718 EUR/USD) on the weekly Euro chart above may be tested as this occurs.  It is also important to note as well the recent reversal to net long Canadian dollar has held, and that new position grew again this week (by 36%) following last week’s 57% rise.

Significant percent change moves highlight one of the main goals of this report; which is to keep an eye on what large speculators have been doing over the longer term with their positions, with the assumption that large speculators are positioning in the direction of the longer term trend.  Consider the potential implications for higher commodity prices if large speculators position for a lower US dollar and are correct…(discussion to be continued in next week’s Currency Report).

Due to the delayed dissemination of this information, this information should in no way be considered in any way as a trade recommendation or advice.

Highlighted Currency, net position and % change

Net Longs                                            Net Shorts

CD +25k, +36%                  EU -21k, -7.4%

DX +12k, +32%

The most recent Commitments of Traders data shows some significant percentage changes in non-commercial futures only net positions from the prior week including the following:

A most important 36% increase from 18,943 to 25,874 contracts net long of the Canadian dollar, which represents 5.56% of open interest;

A trimming 13.54% decrease from 40,408 to 34,935 contracts net short of the British Pound, which represents 2.29% of open interest;

A small 3.88% decrease from 61,521 to 59,137 contracts long of the Japanese Yen, which represents 1.44% of open interest;

An important 7.40% decrease from 23,619 to 21,872 contracts net short of the Euro, which represents 0.51% of open interest;

A sharp 27.17% decline from 52,395 to 38,158 contracts long the Australian dollar, which represents 11.23% of open interest;

A stubborn 32.08% increase from 9,174 to 12,117 contracts net long of the US Dollar Index, which represents 4.34% of open interest;

(Source: www.CFTC.gov)

For those interested in Stock Index Futures, it may be of interest that over the same period large speculators increased new recent net long positions in E-Mini S&P 500 Stock Index Futures by 95.06% from 10,087 to 19,676 contracts (net long).  Note the similarity of recent short covering and reversal to long in S&P to recent Canadian dollar activity.  Feel free to contact me directly for more specific information.

For more information on FuturePath Trading, LLC, PhotonTrader and other trading software demos as well as our Futures and Forex Brokerage services email paul@fptrading.net or call 312.987.2080.

Good Trading,

Paul Kavanaugh

There is a substantial risk of loss in trading futures and options. Futures, options and foreign exchange trading are not appropriate for all investors.  Past performance is not indicative of future results. The information and data in this report were obtained from sources considered reliable. Their accuracy or completeness is not guaranteed and the giving of the same is not to be deemed as an offer or solicitation on our part with respect to the sale or purchase of any securities or commodities.  FuturePath Trading, LLC, its officers and directors may in the normal course of business have positions, which may or may not agree with the opinions expressed in this report. Any decision to purchase or sell as a result of the opinions expressed in this report will be the full responsibility of the person authorizing such transaction.

The Currency Report

Large Currency Speculators trimmed net short Euro bets by over 46%, latest CFTC data shows…

2016 04 18 Euro

Exclusive Event Announcement – Linda Raschke Leader-Follower Program Webinar – Q&A Session

With Paul Kavanaugh of FuturePath Trading, LLC
Wednesday April 20, 2016 at 3:30 pm Central Time

Register Now!

(Commitments of Traders Data)

The latest CFTC data indicates Large Currency Speculators trimmed net short Euro bets by over 46%.  Significant percent change moves highlight one of the main goals of this report; which is to keep an eye on what large speculators have been doing over the longer term with their positions, with the assumption that large speculators are positioning in the direction of the longer term trend.

We have also been noting the recent reduction in net short positions in Canadian dollar, and the reversal to net long Canadian dollar from last week’s report has held, with Large Specs adding to new net longs.  Due to the delayed dissemination of this information, this information should in no way be considered in any way as a trade recommendation or advice.

Highlighted Currency, net position and % change

Net Longs                                            Net Shorts

CD +2k, +2,358%                               EU -52k, -46%

D6 +35k, +30%

 

The most recent Commitments of Traders data shows some significant percentage changes in non-commercial futures only net positions from the prior week including the following:

An overstated 2358.76% increase from 97 to 2,385 contracts net long of the Canadian dollar, which represents 2.12% of open interest;

A significant 29.66% increase from 39574 to 51,310 contracts net short of the British Pound, which represents 4.97% of open interest;

A building 10.18% increase from 60,073 to 66,190 contracts long of the Japanese Yen, which represents 3.41% of open interest;

A massive 44,413% decrease from 96,464 to 52,051 contracts net short of the Euro, which represents 46.04% of open interest;

A large 30.83% increase from 26,845 to 35,122 contracts long the Australian dollar, which represents 6.24% of open interest;

A key 20% decrease from 17,315 to 13,849 contracts net long of the US Dollar Index, which represents 5.87% of open interest;

(Source: www.CFTC.gov)

For those interested in Stock Index Futures, it may be of interest that over the same period large speculators trimmed their net short positions again in E-Mini S&P 500 Stock Index Futures by 14.15% from 104,210 to 89,461 contracts.  Note the similarity of short covering in S&P to recent Canadian dollar activity.  Feel free to contact me directly for more specific information.

For more information on FuturePath Trading, LLC, PhotonTrader and other trading software demos as well as our Futures and Forex Brokerage services email paul@fptrading.net or call 312.987.2080.

Good Trading,

Paul Kavanaugh

Register today for my upcoming webinar….

Linda Raschke Leader-Follower Program Webinar

With Paul Kavanaugh of FuturePath Trading, LLC
Wednesday April 20, 2016 at 3:30 pm Central Time

Register Now!

There is a substantial risk of loss in trading futures and options. Futures, options and foreign exchange trading are not appropriate for all investors.  Past performance is not indicative of future results. The information and data in this report were obtained from sources considered reliable. Their accuracy or completeness is not guaranteed and the giving of the same is not to be deemed as an offer or solicitation on our part with respect to the sale or purchase of any securities or commodities.  FuturePath Trading, LLC, its officers and directors may in the normal course of business have positions, which may or may not agree with the opinions expressed in this report. Any decision to purchase or sell as a result of the opinions expressed in this report will be the full responsibility of the person authorizing such transaction.

The Currency Report

The Currency Report

Large Currency Speculators reversed to net long Canadian dollar, following last week’s over 41% cut in shorts.  In addition, Large Specs increased net short positions in Euro by over 51%, latest CFTC data shows…

2016 04 11 CD

 

(Commitments of Traders Data)

The latest CFTC data indicates Large Currency Speculators reversed to net long Canadian dollar, following last week’s over 41% cut in shorts.  In addition, Large Specs increased net short positions in Euro by over 51%.  Significant percent change moves highlight one of the main goals of this report; which is to keep an eye on what large speculators have been doing over the longer term with their positions, with the assumption that large speculators are positioning in the direction of the longer term trend.

I have written repeatedly that the ‘sleeper data’ recently in my opinion in this report has been the clear trend of short covering by large specs in Canadian dollar.  Last week I stated, “Continuing declines in net short positions by large specs in this ‘Commodity Currency’ may be indicative of short covering/profit taking following the declines we have seen since July 2015”.

The most recent data shows large speculators have now reversed to net long Canadian dollar, coincident with the significant strength commodity traders may be noting recently in Crude Oil.  If we see an increase in net long Canadian dollar positions in the next report, this could indicate further upside potential expected by large speculators.

Due to the delayed dissemination of this information, this information should in no way be considered in any way as a trade recommendation or advice.

Highlighted Currency, net position and % change

Net Longs                                            Net Shorts

CD +0.097k, +101%                                          EU -96k, +51%

JY +60k, +10%

The most recent Commitments of Traders data shows some significant percentage changes in non-commercial futures only net positions from the prior week including the following:

A most significant 101.57% Reversal to net long 97 from net short 6,180 contracts of the Canadian dollar, which represents 5.96% of open interest;

A minor 1.13% decrease from 40,028 to 39574 contracts net short of the British Pound, which represents 0.18% of open interest;

A strong 10.45% increase from 54,387 to 60,073 contracts long of the Japanese Yen, which represents 3.41% of open interest;

A massive 51.17% increase from 63,811 to 96,464 contracts net short of the Euro, which represents 9.65% of open interest;

A large 14.4% increase from 23466 to 26,845 contracts long the Australian dollar, which represents 2.79% of open interest;

A small 2.45% decrease from 17,750 to 17,315 contracts net long of the US Dollar Index, which represents 0.77% of open interest;

(Source: www.CFTC.gov)

For those interested in Stock Index Futures, it may be of interest that over the same period large speculators trimmed their net short positions in E-Mini S&P 500 Stock Index Futures by 15.21% from 122,907 to 104,210 contracts.  Note the similarity of short covering in S&P to recent Canadian dollar activity.  Feel free to contact me directly for more specific information.

For more information on FuturePath Trading, LLC, PhotonTrader and other trading software demos as well as our Futures and Forex Brokerage services email paul@fptrading.net or call 312.987.2080.

Good Trading,

Paul Kavanaugh

Register today for my upcoming webinar….

Linda Raschke Leader-Follower Program Webinar

With Paul Kavanaugh of FuturePath Trading, LLC
Wednesday April 13, 2016 at 3:30 pm Central Time

Register Now!

There is a substantial risk of loss in trading futures and options. Futures, options and foreign exchange trading are not appropriate for all investors.  Past performance is not indicative of future results. The information and data in this report were obtained from sources considered reliable. Their accuracy or completeness is not guaranteed and the giving of the same is not to be deemed as an offer or solicitation on our part with respect to the sale or purchase of any securities or commodities.  FuturePath Trading, LLC, its officers and directors may in the normal course of business have positions, which may or may not agree with the opinions expressed in this report. Any decision to purchase or sell as a result of the opinions expressed in this report will be the full responsibility of the person authorizing such transaction.

 

 

The Currency Report

The Currency Report

Large Currency Speculators further trimmed net short Euro bets (by over 23%), while adding to net longs in Yen, latest CFTC data shows…

2016 02 15 Euro

(Commitments of Traders Data)

Large Currency Speculators further trimmed net short Euro bets (by over 23%) , while adding to net longs in Yen.  Trimming of bets short Euro may be indicative of profit taking by large speculators following significant declines since mid-2015, see chart on this page.  It should be highlighted that this week’s net short Euro position has declined to less than half of its level two weeks ago…

These significant percent change moves highlight one of the main goals of this report; which is to keep an eye on what large speculators have been doing over the longer term with their positions, with the assumption that they large speculators are positioning in the direction of the longer term trend.  Due to the delayed dissemination of this information, it should in no way be considered in any way as a trade recommendation or advice.

Highlighted Currency, net position and % change

Net Longs                                            Net Shorts

JY +43k, +16%                                    EC -63k, -23%

AD -5k, -78%

The most recent Commitments of Traders data shows some significant percentage changes in non-commercial futures only net positions from the prior week including the following:

A minor 0.93% decrease from 52,420 to 51,935 contracts net short of the Canadian dollar, which represents 0.31% of open interest;

An overstated 54.80% increase from 4,695 to 7,268 contracts net short of the Swiss Franc, which represents 4.88% of open interest;

A significant 19.37% decrease from 45,018 to 36,300 contracts net short of the British Pound, which represents 3.41% of open interest;

A strong 16.07% increase from 37,245 to 43,232 contracts long of the Japanese Yen, which represents 2.53% of open interest;

A stunning 23.75% decrease from 87,073 to 63,314 contracts net short of the Euro, which represents 5.38% of open interest;

A trimming 78.50% decrease from 26,168 to 5,626 contracts net short of the Australian Dollar, which represents 18.12% of open interest;

A small 21.97% decrease from 44,872 to 35,013 contracts net long of the US Dollar Index, which represents 12.99% of open interest;

(Source: www.CFTC.gov)

For those interested in Stock Index Futures, it may be of interest that over the same period large speculators increased their net short positions in E-Mini S&P 500 Stock Index Futures by 3.73% from 225,905 to 234,321 contracts.  Feel free to contact me directly for more specific information.

For more information on FuturePath Trading, LLC PhotonTrader Software Demos and Futures and Forex Brokerage services email paul@fptrading.net or call 312.987.2080.

Good Trading,

Paul Kavanaugh

There is a substantial risk of loss in trading futures and options. Futures, options and foreign exchange trading are not appropriate for all investors.  Past performance is not indicative of future results. The information and data in this report were obtained from sources considered reliable. Their accuracy or completeness is not guaranteed and the giving of the same is not to be deemed as an offer or solicitation on our part with respect to the sale or purchase of any securities or commodities.  FuturePath Trading, LLC, its officers and directors may in the normal course of business have positions, which may or may not agree with the opinions expressed in this report. Any decision to purchase or sell as a result of the opinions expressed in this report will be the full responsibility of the person authorizing such transaction.

The Currency Report

The Currency Report

By Paul Kavanaugh

Large Currency Speculators again added to new recent net long positions in Japanese Yen, while significantly boosting existing net shorts of commodity currencies including Australian and Canadian dollar, latest CFTC data shows…

Canadian Dollar

(Commitments of Traders Data)

CFTC data released Friday January 22, 2016 shows large currency speculators increased long Yen positions by over 50%, building on two weeks’ ago reversal to net long.  This week’s data also showed over 50% increases in net short positions in the Canadian and Australian dollar.

These significant percent change moves highlight one of the main goals of this report; which is to keep an eye on what large speculators are doing over the longer term with their positions, with the assumption that they large speculators are positioning in the direction of the longer term trend.

The existing and building net short positions in commodity currencies like the Australian and Canadian dollar suggest the weakness in the commodity sector will continue over the near term in my opinion, which I have published in The Currency Report since 12/28/2015.

Highlighted Currency, net position and % change

Net Longs                                            Net Shorts

JY +37k +50%                                     CD -66k +128%

AD -36k +57%

The most recent Commitments of Traders data shows some significant percentage changes in non-commercial futures only net positions from the prior week including the following:

A sharp 128.66% increase from 29,032 to 66,386 contracts net short of the Canadian dollar, which represents 22.59% of open interest;

A reversing 127.26% change from long 3,324 to short 906 contracts of the Swiss Franc, which represents 127.26% of open interest;

A building 26.4% increase from 30,521 to 38,579 contracts net short of the British Pound, which represents 13.1% of open interest;

A substantial 50.22% increase from 25,066 to 37,653 contracts long of the Japanese Yen, which represents 5.08% of open interest;

A minor 6.44% decrease from 146,451 to 137,015 contracts net short of the Euro, which represents 2.36% of open interest;

A significant 57.39% increase from 23,043 to 36,267 contracts net short of the Australian Dollar, which represents 9.96% of open interest;

A negligible 0.13% increase from 42,719 to 42,775 contracts net long of the US Dollar Index, which represents 0.07% of open interest;

(Source: www.CFTC.gov)

For those interested in Stock Index Futures, it may be of interest that over the same period large speculators again increased their net short positions in E-Mini S&P 500 Stock Index by 16.19% from 162,272 to 188,536 contracts.  Feel free to contact me directly for more specific information.

For more information on FuturePath Trading, LLC PhotonTrader Software Demos and Futures and Forex Brokerage services email paul@fptrading.net or call 312.987.2080.

Good Trading,

Paul Kavanaugh

There is a substantial risk of loss in trading futures and options. Futures, options and foreign exchange trading are not appropriate for all investors.  Past performance is not indicative of future results. The information and data in this report were obtained from sources considered reliable. Their accuracy or completeness is not guaranteed and the giving of the same is not to be deemed as an offer or solicitation on our part with respect to the sale or purchase of any securities or commodities.  FuturePath Trading, LLC, its officers and directors may in the normal course of business have positions, which may or may not agree with the opinions expressed in this report. Any decision to purchase or sell as a result of the opinions expressed in this report will be the full responsibility of the person authorizing such transaction.

Large Currency Speculators added to new recent long net positions in Japanese Yen, while remaining net short of commodity currencies including Australian and Canadian dollar, latest CFTC data shows…

The Currency Report

Large Currency Speculators added to new recent long net positions in Japanese Yen, while remaining net short of commodity currencies including Australian and Canadian dollar, latest CFTC data shows…

Weekly Aussie Chart

(Commitments of Traders Data)

CFTC data released Friday January 15, 2016 shows large currency speculators increased long Yen positions by over 500%, building on last week’s reversal to net long.  This week’s data also showed a 51% decrease in net short positions in the Canadian dollar, which may be indicative of profit taking ahead of this week’s BOC  Jan 20 meeting.

This week’s sharp rise in net long Yen positions highlights one of the main goals of this report; which is to keep an eye on what large speculators are doing over the longer term with their positions, with the assumption that they large speculators are positioning in the direction of the longer term trend.

The existing net short positions in commodity currencies like the Australian and Canadian dollar suggest the weakness in the commodity sector will continue over the near term in my opinion.

The most recent Commitments of Traders data shows some significant percentage changes in non-commercial futures only net positions from the prior week including the following:

A sharp 51.72% decrease from 60,130 to 29,032 contracts net short of the Canadian dollar, which represents 18.70% of open interest;

A small 8.18% decrease from 3,620 to 3,324 contracts net long of the Swiss Franc, which represents 0.64% of open interest;

A miniscule 0.08% increase from 30,496 to 30,521 contracts net short of the British Pound, which represents 0.001% of open interest;

A substantial 510.92% increase from 4,103 to 25,066 contracts of the Japanese Yen, which represents 8.69% of open interest;

A trimming 7.69% decrease from 158,643 to 146,451 contracts net short of the Euro, which represents 3.06% of open interest;

A notable 67.45% increase from 13,761 to 23,043 contracts net short of the Australian Dollar, which represents 7.63% of open interest;

A healthy 4.94% increase from 40,707 to 42,719 contracts net long of the US Dollar Index, which represents 2.72% of open interest;

(Source: www.CFTC.gov)

For those interested in Stock Index Futures, it may be of interest that over the same period large speculators increased their net short positions in E-Mini S&P 500 Stock Index by a massive 59.61% from 104,171 to 162,272 contracts.  Feel free to contact me directly for more specific information.

For more information on FuturePath Trading, LLC PhotonTrader Software Demos and Futures and Forex Brokerage services email paul@fptrading.net or call 312.987.2080.

Good Trading,

Paul Kavanaugh

There is a substantial risk of loss in trading futures and options. Futures, options and foreign exchange trading are not appropriate for all investors.  Past performance is not indicative of future results. The information and data in this report were obtained from sources considered reliable. Their accuracy or completeness is not guaranteed and the giving of the same is not to be deemed as an offer or solicitation on our part with respect to the sale or purchase of any securities or commodities.  FuturePath Trading, LLC, its officers and directors may in the normal course of business have positions, which may or may not agree with the opinions expressed in this report. Any decision to purchase or sell as a result of the opinions expressed in this report will be the full responsibility of the person authorizing such transaction.

The Currency Report

Large Currency Specs nearly doubled net short positions in Australian dollar, while maintaining significant shorts in Canadian dollar, the latest CFTC data shows…

(Canadian Dollar Weekly Continuation Chart Below)

Canadian Dollar

(Commitments of Traders Data)

CFTC data released Monday December 28 shows IMM currency large speculators nearly doubled net short positions in Australian dollar, while maintaining significant shorts in Canadian dollar.  Large specs lowered net longs in US dollar over the same period, which may be a result of end of quarter and end of year profit taking as the US dollar outperformed many asset classes in 2015.  This highlights one of the main goals of this report which is to keep an eye on what large speculators are doing over the longer term with their positions with the assumption that they large speculators are positioning with the longer term trend.  The existing and building net short positions in commodity currencies like Aussie and Canadian suggest further weakness in the commodity sector in my opinion over the near term.

The most recent Commitments of Traders data shows some significant percentage changes in non-commercial futures only net positions from the prior week including the following:

A building 9.84% increase from 51,009 to 56,027 contracts net short of the Canadian dollar, which represents 3.07% of open interest;

A large 41.06% increase from 1,951 to 2,752 contracts net long of the Swiss Franc, which represents 1.59% of open interest;

A huge 57.57% increase from 16,920 to 26,661 contracts net short of the British Pound, which represents 5.01% of open interest;

A solid 14.25% increase from 26,580 to 30,367 contracts net short of the Japanese Yen, which represents 1.92% of open interest;

A holding 0.68% increase from 159,961 to 161,047 contracts net short of the Euro, which represents 0.27% of open interest;

A Most Significant 99.52% increase from 10,402 to 20,854 contracts net short of the Australian Dollar, which represents 9.79% of open interest;

A trimming 9.47% decrease from 36,902 to 33,407 contracts net long of the US Dollar Index, which represents 5.37% of open interest;

(Source: www.CFTC.gov)

Good Trading,

Paul Kavanaugh

For more information on FuturePath Trading, LLC PhotonTrader Software and Futures and Forex Brokerage services please email paul@fptrading.net or call 312.987.2080

There is a substantial risk of loss in trading futures and options. Futures, options and foreign exchange trading are not appropriate for all investors.  Past performance is not indicative of future results. The information and data in this report were obtained from sources considered reliable. Their accuracy or completeness is not guaranteed and the giving of the same is not to be deemed as an offer or solicitation on our part with respect to the sale or purchase of any securities or commodities.  FuturePath Trading, LLC, its officers and directors may in the normal course of business have positions, which may or may not agree with the opinions expressed in this report. Any decision to purchase or sell as a result of the opinions expressed in this report will be the full responsibility of the person authorizing such transaction.