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The Currency Report

The Currency Report  

Large Currency Speculators added to net longs in Canadian dollar, latest CFTC data shows…

2016 05 16 CD

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 (Commitments of Traders Data)

The latest CFTC data indicates Large Currency Speculators trimmed net short Euro bets by just 7.4%, while adding to US dollar longs by over 36%.  Will we see a reversal to net long Euro and net short US dollar in next week’s report? We will wait and see, but my suggestion is it will occur sooner rather than later.  Note the key 2015 high (1.1718 EUR/USD) on the weekly Euro chart above may be tested as this occurs.  It is also important to note as well the recent reversal to net long Canadian dollar has held, and that new position grew again this week (by 36%) following last week’s 57% rise.

Significant percent change moves highlight one of the main goals of this report; which is to keep an eye on what large speculators have been doing over the longer term with their positions, with the assumption that large speculators are positioning in the direction of the longer term trend.  Consider the potential implications for higher commodity prices if large speculators position for a lower US dollar and are correct…(discussion to be continued in next week’s Currency Report).

Due to the delayed dissemination of this information, this information should in no way be considered in any way as a trade recommendation or advice.

Highlighted Currency, net position and % change

Net Longs                                            Net Shorts

CD +25k, +36%                  EU -21k, -7.4%

DX +12k, +32%

The most recent Commitments of Traders data shows some significant percentage changes in non-commercial futures only net positions from the prior week including the following:

A most important 36% increase from 18,943 to 25,874 contracts net long of the Canadian dollar, which represents 5.56% of open interest;

A trimming 13.54% decrease from 40,408 to 34,935 contracts net short of the British Pound, which represents 2.29% of open interest;

A small 3.88% decrease from 61,521 to 59,137 contracts long of the Japanese Yen, which represents 1.44% of open interest;

An important 7.40% decrease from 23,619 to 21,872 contracts net short of the Euro, which represents 0.51% of open interest;

A sharp 27.17% decline from 52,395 to 38,158 contracts long the Australian dollar, which represents 11.23% of open interest;

A stubborn 32.08% increase from 9,174 to 12,117 contracts net long of the US Dollar Index, which represents 4.34% of open interest;

(Source: www.CFTC.gov)

For those interested in Stock Index Futures, it may be of interest that over the same period large speculators increased new recent net long positions in E-Mini S&P 500 Stock Index Futures by 95.06% from 10,087 to 19,676 contracts (net long).  Note the similarity of recent short covering and reversal to long in S&P to recent Canadian dollar activity.  Feel free to contact me directly for more specific information.

For more information on FuturePath Trading, LLC, PhotonTrader and other trading software demos as well as our Futures and Forex Brokerage services email paul@fptrading.net or call 312.987.2080.

Good Trading,

Paul Kavanaugh

There is a substantial risk of loss in trading futures and options. Futures, options and foreign exchange trading are not appropriate for all investors.  Past performance is not indicative of future results. The information and data in this report were obtained from sources considered reliable. Their accuracy or completeness is not guaranteed and the giving of the same is not to be deemed as an offer or solicitation on our part with respect to the sale or purchase of any securities or commodities.  FuturePath Trading, LLC, its officers and directors may in the normal course of business have positions, which may or may not agree with the opinions expressed in this report. Any decision to purchase or sell as a result of the opinions expressed in this report will be the full responsibility of the person authorizing such transaction.

The Currency Report

Large Currency Speculators significantly reduced net short positions in British Pound and Canadian dollar, latest CFTC data shows…

BP Chart

2016 03 21 BP

(Commitments of Traders Data)

The latest CFTC data shows large Currency Speculators significantly reduced net short positions in British Pound and Canadian dollar.  Significant percent change moves highlight one of the main goals of this report; which is to keep an eye on what large speculators have been doing over the longer term with their positions, with the assumption that large speculators are positioning in the direction of the longer term trend.

Given the magnitude of the reductions in net short position size in these two currencies; it could be further indication of profit taking by large speculators.  Due to the delayed dissemination of this information, this information should in no way be considered in any way as a trade recommendation or advice.

Highlighted Currency, net position and % change

Net Longs                                            Net Shorts

JY +45k, -30%                                     CD -16k, -34%

DA +17k, -33%                                   BP -13k, -72%

The most recent Commitments of Traders data shows some significant percentage changes in non-commercial futures only net positions from the prior week including the following:

A sharp 34.73% decrease from 25,781 to 16,826 contracts net short of the Canadian dollar, which represents 5.29% of open interest;

A statistically overstated 4,179.07% reversal to long 5262 contracts from short just 129 contracts of the Swiss Franc, which represents 13.39% of open interest;

A striking 72.21% decrease from 49,005 to 13,619 contracts net short of the British Pound, which represents 13.98% of open interest;

A trimming 30.85% decrease from 64,333 to 45,489 contracts long of the Japanese Yen, which represents 14.17% of open interest;

A minor 7.70% increase from 72,007 to 77,555 contracts net short of the Euro, which represents 1.72% of open interest;

A significant 43.78% decrease from 29,195 to 16,413 contracts long the Australian dollar, which represents 12.78% of open interest;

A large 33.62% decrease from 26,378 to 17,511 contracts net long of the US Dollar Index, which represents 17.85% of open interest;

(Source: www.CFTC.gov)

For those interested in Stock Index Futures, it may be of interest that over the same period large speculators increased (basically maintained) their net short positions in E-Mini S&P 500 Stock Index Futures by 0.14% from 205,655 to 205,945 contracts.  Feel free to contact me directly for more specific information.

For more information on FuturePath Trading, LLC, PhotonTrader and other trading software demos as well as our Futures and Forex Brokerage services email paul@fptrading.net or call 312.987.2080.

Good Trading,

Paul Kavanaugh

PhotonTrader Demo

There is a substantial risk of loss in trading futures and options. Futures, options and foreign exchange trading are not appropriate for all investors.  Past performance is not indicative of future results. The information and data in this report were obtained from sources considered reliable. Their accuracy or completeness is not guaranteed and the giving of the same is not to be deemed as an offer or solicitation on our part with respect to the sale or purchase of any securities or commodities.  FuturePath Trading, LLC, its officers and directors may in the normal course of business have positions, which may or may not agree with the opinions expressed in this report. Any decision to purchase or sell as a result of the opinions expressed in this report will be the full responsibility of the person authorizing such transaction.