Tag : currency

The Currency Report

The Currency Report

Large Currency Speculators reversed to net long Canadian dollar, following last week’s over 41% cut in shorts.  In addition, Large Specs increased net short positions in Euro by over 51%, latest CFTC data shows…

2016 04 11 CD

 

(Commitments of Traders Data)

The latest CFTC data indicates Large Currency Speculators reversed to net long Canadian dollar, following last week’s over 41% cut in shorts.  In addition, Large Specs increased net short positions in Euro by over 51%.  Significant percent change moves highlight one of the main goals of this report; which is to keep an eye on what large speculators have been doing over the longer term with their positions, with the assumption that large speculators are positioning in the direction of the longer term trend.

I have written repeatedly that the ‘sleeper data’ recently in my opinion in this report has been the clear trend of short covering by large specs in Canadian dollar.  Last week I stated, “Continuing declines in net short positions by large specs in this ‘Commodity Currency’ may be indicative of short covering/profit taking following the declines we have seen since July 2015”.

The most recent data shows large speculators have now reversed to net long Canadian dollar, coincident with the significant strength commodity traders may be noting recently in Crude Oil.  If we see an increase in net long Canadian dollar positions in the next report, this could indicate further upside potential expected by large speculators.

Due to the delayed dissemination of this information, this information should in no way be considered in any way as a trade recommendation or advice.

Highlighted Currency, net position and % change

Net Longs                                            Net Shorts

CD +0.097k, +101%                                          EU -96k, +51%

JY +60k, +10%

The most recent Commitments of Traders data shows some significant percentage changes in non-commercial futures only net positions from the prior week including the following:

A most significant 101.57% Reversal to net long 97 from net short 6,180 contracts of the Canadian dollar, which represents 5.96% of open interest;

A minor 1.13% decrease from 40,028 to 39574 contracts net short of the British Pound, which represents 0.18% of open interest;

A strong 10.45% increase from 54,387 to 60,073 contracts long of the Japanese Yen, which represents 3.41% of open interest;

A massive 51.17% increase from 63,811 to 96,464 contracts net short of the Euro, which represents 9.65% of open interest;

A large 14.4% increase from 23466 to 26,845 contracts long the Australian dollar, which represents 2.79% of open interest;

A small 2.45% decrease from 17,750 to 17,315 contracts net long of the US Dollar Index, which represents 0.77% of open interest;

(Source: www.CFTC.gov)

For those interested in Stock Index Futures, it may be of interest that over the same period large speculators trimmed their net short positions in E-Mini S&P 500 Stock Index Futures by 15.21% from 122,907 to 104,210 contracts.  Note the similarity of short covering in S&P to recent Canadian dollar activity.  Feel free to contact me directly for more specific information.

For more information on FuturePath Trading, LLC, PhotonTrader and other trading software demos as well as our Futures and Forex Brokerage services email paul@fptrading.net or call 312.987.2080.

Good Trading,

Paul Kavanaugh

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With Paul Kavanaugh of FuturePath Trading, LLC
Wednesday April 13, 2016 at 3:30 pm Central Time

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There is a substantial risk of loss in trading futures and options. Futures, options and foreign exchange trading are not appropriate for all investors.  Past performance is not indicative of future results. The information and data in this report were obtained from sources considered reliable. Their accuracy or completeness is not guaranteed and the giving of the same is not to be deemed as an offer or solicitation on our part with respect to the sale or purchase of any securities or commodities.  FuturePath Trading, LLC, its officers and directors may in the normal course of business have positions, which may or may not agree with the opinions expressed in this report. Any decision to purchase or sell as a result of the opinions expressed in this report will be the full responsibility of the person authorizing such transaction.

 

 

The Currency Report

The Currency Report

Large Currency Speculators trimmed short Canadian dollar bets, while adding to long Yen, latest CFTC data shows…

2016 03 07 cd

(Commitments of Traders Data)

The latest CFTC data shows large Currency Speculators trimmed short Canadian dollar bets, while adding to long Yen holdings.  Particular importance should be given to this recent change in Canadian positions, as it may be reflective of the short covering we are likely seeing in crude oil futures as well.

Significant percent change moves highlight one of the main goals of this report; which is to keep an eye on what large speculators have been doing over the longer term with their positions, with the assumption that they large speculators are positioning in the direction of the longer term trend.

Due to the delayed dissemination of this information, this information should in no way be considered in any way as a trade recommendation or advice.

Highlighted Currency, net position and % change

Net Longs                                            Net Shorts

JY +59k, +13%                                    EC -68k, +46%

CD -30k, -17%

The most recent Commitments of Traders data shows some significant percentage changes in non-commercial futures only net positions from the prior week including the following:

An important 17.49% decrease from 36,940 to 30,478 contracts net short of the Canadian dollar, which represents 4.06% of open interest;

A 61.1% increase from 2,321 to 3,507 contracts net short of the Swiss Franc, which represents 6.04% of open interest;

A strong 19.08% increase from 33,068 to 33,.068 contracts net short of the British Pound, which represents 2.29% of open interest;

A building 13.07% increase from 52,734 to 6,891 contracts long of the Japanese Yen, which represents 2.63% of open interest;

A rebuilding 46.28% increase from 46,857 to 68,541 contracts net short of the Euro, which represents 5.19% of open interest;

A strengthening 107.43% increase from 9,575 to 19,861 contracts long the Australian dollar, which represents 8.37% of open interest;

A small 8.97% decrease from 29,425 to 26,785 contracts net long of the US Dollar Index, which represents 4.11% of open interest;

(Source: www.CFTC.gov)

For those interested in Stock Index Futures, it may be of interest that over the same period large speculators increased their net short positions in E-Mini S&P 500 Stock Index Futures by 4.95% from 208,122 to 218,422 contracts.  Feel free to contact me directly for more specific information.

For more information on FuturePath Trading, LLC PhotonTrader Software Demos and Futures and Forex Brokerage services email paul@fptrading.net or call 312.987.2080.

Good Trading,

Paul Kavanaugh

There is a substantial risk of loss in trading futures and options. Futures, options and foreign exchange trading are not appropriate for all investors.  Past performance is not indicative of future results. The information and data in this report were obtained from sources considered reliable. Their accuracy or completeness is not guaranteed and the giving of the same is not to be deemed as an offer or solicitation on our part with respect to the sale or purchase of any securities or commodities.  FuturePath Trading, LLC, its officers and directors may in the normal course of business have positions, which may or may not agree with the opinions expressed in this report. Any decision to purchase or sell as a result of the opinions expressed in this report will be the full responsibility of the person authorizing such transaction.

The Currency Report

The Currency Report

Large Currency Speculators further trimmed net short Euro bets (by over 23%), while adding to net longs in Yen, latest CFTC data shows…

2016 02 15 Euro

(Commitments of Traders Data)

Large Currency Speculators further trimmed net short Euro bets (by over 23%) , while adding to net longs in Yen.  Trimming of bets short Euro may be indicative of profit taking by large speculators following significant declines since mid-2015, see chart on this page.  It should be highlighted that this week’s net short Euro position has declined to less than half of its level two weeks ago…

These significant percent change moves highlight one of the main goals of this report; which is to keep an eye on what large speculators have been doing over the longer term with their positions, with the assumption that they large speculators are positioning in the direction of the longer term trend.  Due to the delayed dissemination of this information, it should in no way be considered in any way as a trade recommendation or advice.

Highlighted Currency, net position and % change

Net Longs                                            Net Shorts

JY +43k, +16%                                    EC -63k, -23%

AD -5k, -78%

The most recent Commitments of Traders data shows some significant percentage changes in non-commercial futures only net positions from the prior week including the following:

A minor 0.93% decrease from 52,420 to 51,935 contracts net short of the Canadian dollar, which represents 0.31% of open interest;

An overstated 54.80% increase from 4,695 to 7,268 contracts net short of the Swiss Franc, which represents 4.88% of open interest;

A significant 19.37% decrease from 45,018 to 36,300 contracts net short of the British Pound, which represents 3.41% of open interest;

A strong 16.07% increase from 37,245 to 43,232 contracts long of the Japanese Yen, which represents 2.53% of open interest;

A stunning 23.75% decrease from 87,073 to 63,314 contracts net short of the Euro, which represents 5.38% of open interest;

A trimming 78.50% decrease from 26,168 to 5,626 contracts net short of the Australian Dollar, which represents 18.12% of open interest;

A small 21.97% decrease from 44,872 to 35,013 contracts net long of the US Dollar Index, which represents 12.99% of open interest;

(Source: www.CFTC.gov)

For those interested in Stock Index Futures, it may be of interest that over the same period large speculators increased their net short positions in E-Mini S&P 500 Stock Index Futures by 3.73% from 225,905 to 234,321 contracts.  Feel free to contact me directly for more specific information.

For more information on FuturePath Trading, LLC PhotonTrader Software Demos and Futures and Forex Brokerage services email paul@fptrading.net or call 312.987.2080.

Good Trading,

Paul Kavanaugh

There is a substantial risk of loss in trading futures and options. Futures, options and foreign exchange trading are not appropriate for all investors.  Past performance is not indicative of future results. The information and data in this report were obtained from sources considered reliable. Their accuracy or completeness is not guaranteed and the giving of the same is not to be deemed as an offer or solicitation on our part with respect to the sale or purchase of any securities or commodities.  FuturePath Trading, LLC, its officers and directors may in the normal course of business have positions, which may or may not agree with the opinions expressed in this report. Any decision to purchase or sell as a result of the opinions expressed in this report will be the full responsibility of the person authorizing such transaction.

The Currency Report

The Currency Report

Large Currency Speculators increased by nearly one third net long Yen positions while remaining net short of other major currencies save the US dollar, latest CFTC data shows…

2016 02 01 JY

(Commitments of Traders Data)

CFTC data released Friday January 29, 2016 shows Large Currency Speculators increased by nearly one third net long Yen positions while remaining net short of other major currencies save the US dollar.

These significant percent change moves highlight one of the main goals of this report; which is to keep an eye on what large speculators have been doing over the longer term with their positions, with the assumption that they large speculators are positioning in the direction of the longer term trend.  Due to the delayed dissemination of this information, it should in no way be considered in any way as a trade recommendation or advice.

Highlighted Currency, net position and % change

Net Longs                                            Net Shorts

JY +50k +32%                                     CD -66k +0.1%

AD -32k +9%

The most recent Commitments of Traders data shows some significant percentage changes in non-commercial futures only net positions from the prior week including the following:

A mild 0.65% increase from 66,386 to 66,819 contracts net short of the Canadian dollar, which represents 0.26% of open interest;

A sharp 397.02% increase from 906 to 4,503 contracts net short of the Swiss Franc, which represents 6.46% of open interest;

A building 18.55% increase from 38,579 to 45,737 contracts net short of the British Pound, which represents 2.62% of open interest;

A significant 32.86% increase from 37,653 to 50,026 contracts long of the Japanese Yen, which represents 0.49% of open interest;

An important 7.15% decrease from 137,015 to 127,215 contracts net short of the Euro, which represents 2.44% of open interest;

A trimming 9.57% decrease from 36,267 to 32,798 contracts net short of the Australian Dollar, which represents 2.77% of open interest;

A small 3.39% increase from 42,775 to 44,225 contracts net long of the US Dollar Index, which represents 1.91% of open interest;

(Source: www.CFTC.gov)

For those interested in Stock Index Futures, it may be of interest that over the same period large speculators again decreased their net short positions in E-Mini S&P 500 Stock Index by 30.06% from 188,536 to 131,871 contracts.  Feel free to contact me directly for more specific information.

For more information on FuturePath Trading, LLC PhotonTrader Software Demos and Futures and Forex Brokerage services email paul@fptrading.net or call 312.987.2080.

Good Trading,

Paul Kavanaugh

There is a substantial risk of loss in trading futures and options. Futures, options and foreign exchange trading are not appropriate for all investors.  Past performance is not indicative of future results. The information and data in this report were obtained from sources considered reliable. Their accuracy or completeness is not guaranteed and the giving of the same is not to be deemed as an offer or solicitation on our part with respect to the sale or purchase of any securities or commodities.  FuturePath Trading, LLC, its officers and directors may in the normal course of business have positions, which may or may not agree with the opinions expressed in this report. Any decision to purchase or sell as a result of the opinions expressed in this report will be the full responsibility of the person authorizing such transaction.

Large Currency Speculators added to new recent long net positions in Japanese Yen, while remaining net short of commodity currencies including Australian and Canadian dollar, latest CFTC data shows…

The Currency Report

Large Currency Speculators added to new recent long net positions in Japanese Yen, while remaining net short of commodity currencies including Australian and Canadian dollar, latest CFTC data shows…

Weekly Aussie Chart

(Commitments of Traders Data)

CFTC data released Friday January 15, 2016 shows large currency speculators increased long Yen positions by over 500%, building on last week’s reversal to net long.  This week’s data also showed a 51% decrease in net short positions in the Canadian dollar, which may be indicative of profit taking ahead of this week’s BOC  Jan 20 meeting.

This week’s sharp rise in net long Yen positions highlights one of the main goals of this report; which is to keep an eye on what large speculators are doing over the longer term with their positions, with the assumption that they large speculators are positioning in the direction of the longer term trend.

The existing net short positions in commodity currencies like the Australian and Canadian dollar suggest the weakness in the commodity sector will continue over the near term in my opinion.

The most recent Commitments of Traders data shows some significant percentage changes in non-commercial futures only net positions from the prior week including the following:

A sharp 51.72% decrease from 60,130 to 29,032 contracts net short of the Canadian dollar, which represents 18.70% of open interest;

A small 8.18% decrease from 3,620 to 3,324 contracts net long of the Swiss Franc, which represents 0.64% of open interest;

A miniscule 0.08% increase from 30,496 to 30,521 contracts net short of the British Pound, which represents 0.001% of open interest;

A substantial 510.92% increase from 4,103 to 25,066 contracts of the Japanese Yen, which represents 8.69% of open interest;

A trimming 7.69% decrease from 158,643 to 146,451 contracts net short of the Euro, which represents 3.06% of open interest;

A notable 67.45% increase from 13,761 to 23,043 contracts net short of the Australian Dollar, which represents 7.63% of open interest;

A healthy 4.94% increase from 40,707 to 42,719 contracts net long of the US Dollar Index, which represents 2.72% of open interest;

(Source: www.CFTC.gov)

For those interested in Stock Index Futures, it may be of interest that over the same period large speculators increased their net short positions in E-Mini S&P 500 Stock Index by a massive 59.61% from 104,171 to 162,272 contracts.  Feel free to contact me directly for more specific information.

For more information on FuturePath Trading, LLC PhotonTrader Software Demos and Futures and Forex Brokerage services email paul@fptrading.net or call 312.987.2080.

Good Trading,

Paul Kavanaugh

There is a substantial risk of loss in trading futures and options. Futures, options and foreign exchange trading are not appropriate for all investors.  Past performance is not indicative of future results. The information and data in this report were obtained from sources considered reliable. Their accuracy or completeness is not guaranteed and the giving of the same is not to be deemed as an offer or solicitation on our part with respect to the sale or purchase of any securities or commodities.  FuturePath Trading, LLC, its officers and directors may in the normal course of business have positions, which may or may not agree with the opinions expressed in this report. Any decision to purchase or sell as a result of the opinions expressed in this report will be the full responsibility of the person authorizing such transaction.