Tag : currency research

The Currency Report

The Currency Report

Large Currency Speculators added to net long Yen bets, while trimming net long US dollar positions, the latest CFTC data shows…

JY Chart

2016 08 10 Yen

(Commitments of Traders Data)

Large Currency Speculators added to net long Yen bets, while trimming net long US dollar positions, the latest CFTC data shows…

The latest CFTC data (released August 5th) shows Large Specs had increased bets net long Yen by 19.29% even as the Yen on BREXIT flight to quality rally exceeded a 25% linear rise from its December 2015 lows.  This could signal large speculators (Funds) are positioning for a continuation of this impressive uptrend, (weekly Yen continuation chart above).

Significant percent change moves highlight one of the main goals of this report; which is to keep an eye on what large speculators have been doing over the longer term with their positions, with the assumption that large speculators are positioning in the direction of the longer term trend.

Due to the delayed dissemination of this information, this information should in no way be considered in any way as a trade recommendation or trading advice.

Highlighted Currency, net position and % change

Net Longs                                            Net Shorts

DX +17k, -21%                                   EU -104k, -7%

JY +41k, +19%                                                     

The most recent Commitments of Traders data shows some significant percentage changes in non-commercial futures only net positions from the prior week including the following:

A minor 7.41% decrease from 19,180 to 17,758 contracts net long of the Canadian dollar, which represents 1.23% of open interest;

A maintaining short position 2.41% increase from 80,572 to 82,515 contracts net short of the British Pound, which represents 0.83% of open interest;

A surprising and very significant 19.29% increase from 34,958 to 41,700 contracts net long of the Japanese Yen, which represents 4.3% of open interest;

A small 7.18% decrease from 112,600 to 104,516 contracts net short of the Euro, which represents 2.14% of open interest;

A miniscule 0.47% decrease from 31,510 to 31,363 contracts short of the Australian dollar, which represents 0.15% of open interest;

A huge 21.18% decrease from 22,479 to 17,717 contracts long of the US Dollar Index, which represents 8.68% of open interest;

(Source: www.CFTC.gov)

For those interested in Stock Index Futures, over the same period large speculators cut 31.36% of net longs from 162,082 to 111,250 contracts, representing 1.73% of open interest.

For more information on FuturePath Trading, LLC, PhotonTrader and other trading software demos as well as our Futures and Forex Brokerage services email paul@fptrading.net or call 312.987.2080.

Good Trading,

Paul Kavanaugh

There is a substantial risk of loss in trading futures and options. Futures, options and foreign exchange trading are not appropriate for all investors.  Past performance is not indicative of future results. The information and data in this report were obtained from sources considered reliable. Their accuracy or completeness is not guaranteed and the giving of the same is not to be deemed as an offer or solicitation on our part with respect to the sale or purchase of any securities or commodities.  FuturePath Trading, LLC, its officers and directors may in the normal course of business have positions, which may or may not agree with the opinions expressed in this report. Any decision to purchase or sell as a result of the opinions expressed in this report will be the full responsibility of the person authorizing such transaction.

The Currency Report

Large Currency Speculators increased bets net short British Pound and Euro, while adding to net long US dollar positions, the latest CFTC data shows…

BP Chart

Note; if you would like a demo of the CQG Q-Trader software used to produce these charts, please contact me directly at paul@fprading.net thank you.

2016 08 02 BP

(Commitments of Traders Data)

Large Currency Speculators increased bets net short British Pound and Euro, while adding to net long US dollar positions, the latest CFTC data shows…

The latest CFTC data (released Friday July 29th) shows Large Specs had increased bets net short British Pound by over 8%, net short Euro bets by over 12% and net longs in the US dollar by over 54%.  Such has been the trend in general since BREXIT, large specs becoming longer of the dollar and more short in British Pound Sterling and Euro.

Significant percent change moves highlight one of the main goals of this report; which is to keep an eye on what large speculators have been doing over the longer term with their positions, with the assumption that large speculators are positioning in the direction of the longer term trend.

Due to the delayed dissemination of this information, this information should in no way be considered in any way as a trade recommendation or advice.

Highlighted Currency, net position and % change

Net Longs                                            Net Shorts

DX +22k, +54%                                 EU -112k, +12%

                                                                BP -80k, +8%

The most recent Commitments of Traders data shows some significant percentage changes in non-commercial futures only net positions from the prior week including the following:

An important 13.09% decrease from 22,068 to 19,180 contracts net long of the Canadian dollar, which represents 2.45% of open interest;

A building 8.32% increase from 74,386 to 80,572 contracts net short of the British Pound, which represents 2.67% of open interest;

A minor 11.17% decrease from 39,353 to 34,958 contracts long of the Japanese Yen, which represents 2.75% of open interest;

A key 12.72% increase from 99,891 to 112,600 contracts net short of the Euro, which represents 3.18% of open interest;

A small 5.75% decrease from 33,431 to 31,510 contracts short of the Australian dollar, which represents 2.01% of open interest;

A half again 54.75% increase from 14,526 to 22,479 contracts long of the US Dollar Index, which represents 12.6% of open interest;

(Source: www.CFTC.gov)

For those interested in Stock Index Futures, over the same period large speculators added 10.84% to net longs from 146,232 to 162,082 contracts, representing 0.53% of open interest.

For more information on FuturePath Trading, LLC, PhotonTrader and other trading software demos as well as our Futures and Forex Brokerage services email paul@fptrading.net or call 312.987.2080.

Good Trading,

Paul Kavanaugh

There is a substantial risk of loss in trading futures and options. Futures, options and foreign exchange trading are not appropriate for all investors.  Past performance is not indicative of future results. The information and data in this report were obtained from sources considered reliable. Their accuracy or completeness is not guaranteed and the giving of the same is not to be deemed as an offer or solicitation on our part with respect to the sale or purchase of any securities or commodities.  FuturePath Trading, LLC, its officers and directors may in the normal course of business have positions, which may or may not agree with the opinions expressed in this report. Any decision to purchase or sell as a result of the opinions expressed in this report will be the full responsibility of the person authorizing such transaction.

The Currency Report

The Currency Report  

Large Currency Speculators added to net longs in Canadian dollar, latest CFTC data shows…

2016 05 16 CD

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Linda Raschke Leader-Follower Program-Q&A Session 

 

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Webinar Invitation  Check out FuturePath Trading’s New Linda Raschke Leader-Follower Program Specs, click or paste the link below in your browser

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 (Commitments of Traders Data)

The latest CFTC data indicates Large Currency Speculators trimmed net short Euro bets by just 7.4%, while adding to US dollar longs by over 36%.  Will we see a reversal to net long Euro and net short US dollar in next week’s report? We will wait and see, but my suggestion is it will occur sooner rather than later.  Note the key 2015 high (1.1718 EUR/USD) on the weekly Euro chart above may be tested as this occurs.  It is also important to note as well the recent reversal to net long Canadian dollar has held, and that new position grew again this week (by 36%) following last week’s 57% rise.

Significant percent change moves highlight one of the main goals of this report; which is to keep an eye on what large speculators have been doing over the longer term with their positions, with the assumption that large speculators are positioning in the direction of the longer term trend.  Consider the potential implications for higher commodity prices if large speculators position for a lower US dollar and are correct…(discussion to be continued in next week’s Currency Report).

Due to the delayed dissemination of this information, this information should in no way be considered in any way as a trade recommendation or advice.

Highlighted Currency, net position and % change

Net Longs                                            Net Shorts

CD +25k, +36%                  EU -21k, -7.4%

DX +12k, +32%

The most recent Commitments of Traders data shows some significant percentage changes in non-commercial futures only net positions from the prior week including the following:

A most important 36% increase from 18,943 to 25,874 contracts net long of the Canadian dollar, which represents 5.56% of open interest;

A trimming 13.54% decrease from 40,408 to 34,935 contracts net short of the British Pound, which represents 2.29% of open interest;

A small 3.88% decrease from 61,521 to 59,137 contracts long of the Japanese Yen, which represents 1.44% of open interest;

An important 7.40% decrease from 23,619 to 21,872 contracts net short of the Euro, which represents 0.51% of open interest;

A sharp 27.17% decline from 52,395 to 38,158 contracts long the Australian dollar, which represents 11.23% of open interest;

A stubborn 32.08% increase from 9,174 to 12,117 contracts net long of the US Dollar Index, which represents 4.34% of open interest;

(Source: www.CFTC.gov)

For those interested in Stock Index Futures, it may be of interest that over the same period large speculators increased new recent net long positions in E-Mini S&P 500 Stock Index Futures by 95.06% from 10,087 to 19,676 contracts (net long).  Note the similarity of recent short covering and reversal to long in S&P to recent Canadian dollar activity.  Feel free to contact me directly for more specific information.

For more information on FuturePath Trading, LLC, PhotonTrader and other trading software demos as well as our Futures and Forex Brokerage services email paul@fptrading.net or call 312.987.2080.

Good Trading,

Paul Kavanaugh

There is a substantial risk of loss in trading futures and options. Futures, options and foreign exchange trading are not appropriate for all investors.  Past performance is not indicative of future results. The information and data in this report were obtained from sources considered reliable. Their accuracy or completeness is not guaranteed and the giving of the same is not to be deemed as an offer or solicitation on our part with respect to the sale or purchase of any securities or commodities.  FuturePath Trading, LLC, its officers and directors may in the normal course of business have positions, which may or may not agree with the opinions expressed in this report. Any decision to purchase or sell as a result of the opinions expressed in this report will be the full responsibility of the person authorizing such transaction.