Category : Jerry Winter

The Daily Bar- 11/18/2015

Gold 11.18.2015

December Gold
The opportunity to prospect the Long side of the Gold market may have presented itself with a recognition of the BlueLine at 1062.0, the low of 11/18/2015. The market is oversold with positive divergence with the CCI and indicates to us that a period of short covering, after a protracted down move, may be possible. We have a down Trend Channel that could be in danger of having the 1st level of deviation violated on a close above 1074.60. We also have a Seal Line from Yesterday’s low that could provide additional confirmation that a near-term low is in place. First Target would be the .297 retracement, allowing for a favorable risk/reward situation. A close below 1062.0 may signal that the sell-off is not yet complete, and lower prices could be expected.

Important Futures Trading Disclaimer
Trading futures and options involves the risk of loss. Please consider carefully whether futures or options are appropriate to your financial situation. Only risk capital should be used when trading Futures, Forex or options. You must review customer account agreement prior to establishing an account. Investors could lose more than their initial investment. Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results. The risk of loss in trading can be substantial, carefully consider the inherent risks of such an investment in light of your financial condition.

HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE MANY INHERENT LIMITATIONS, SOME OF WHICH ARE DESCRIBED BELOW. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFITS OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN. IN FACT, THERE ARE FREQUENTLY SHARP DIFFERENCES BETWEEN HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND THE ACTUAL RESULTS SUBSEQUENTLY ACHIEVED BY ANY PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM

The Daily Bar 10/6/2015

March 2016 Sugar

March 2016 Sugar

The Sugar Market broke out of its down channel with a vengeance last week. It has run up to meet the BlackLine at 13.68 and a Blue Line at the same level. Today’s action also created an Inside Day at the High of the move. With the March contract Overbought and showing several days of Negative Divergence, a Short Signal will be created, and a position could be initiated if Elected. We have seen several markets reaching BlackLines over the last week, and when this occurs, the market would have a tendency to create BlueLine trades as well. Given the magnitude of the rally, a pull back into support would not be out of the question. Look for the gap from 9/29 (.593 retracement) to 9/30 (.50 retracement) to be a realistic downside target (if short signal is elected).

Important Futures Trading Disclaimer
Trading futures and options involves the risk of loss. Please consider carefully whether futures or options are appropriate to your financial situation. Only risk capital should be used when trading Futures, Forex or options. You must review customer account agreement prior to establishing an account. Investors could lose more than their initial investment. Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results. The risk of loss in trading can be substantial, carefully consider the inherent risks of such an investment in light of your financial condition.
HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE MANY INHERENT LIMITATIONS, SOME OF WHICH ARE DESCRIBED BELOW. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFITS OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN. IN FACT, THERE ARE FREQUENTLY SHARP DIFFERENCES BETWEEN HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND THE ACTUAL RESULTS SUBSEQUENTLY ACHIEVED BY ANY PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM.

The Daily Bar- 9/30/2015

March 16 Wheat- Daily Bar

March 16 Wheat- Daily Bar

March 16 Wheat- Daily Bar

The short signal was elected today based on the signal generated by the Key Reversal off of the Over Bought Stoch and Negative Divergence.  However, that position would have reversed to Long on the Outside Day created from the Inside Day on 9/29/2015.  This puts traders back into a position in agreement with the Positive Aspect and upward sloping Trend Channel.  The next area of Resistance will be 521^6 (.375) and then 533^0 (.445).  This has been a pretty robust uptrend channel, so a Two-Bar Trailing stop would be suggested for the time being.

 

HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE MANY INHERENT LIMITATIONS, SOME OF WHICH ARE DESCRIBED BELOW. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFITS OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN. IN FACT, THERE ARE FREQUENTLY SHARP DIFFERENCES BETWEEN HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND THE ACTUAL RESULTS SUBSEQUENTLY ACHIEVED BY ANY PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM.
Forex trading, commodity trading, managed futures, and other alternative investments are complex and carry a risk of substantial losses. As such, they are not suitable for all investors.