Who, exactly, is employed to forecast government stats like unemployment? Let's see.....+100,000 jobs expected, -4000 is the actual number.
This is the market environment of +/- (insert very large number) standard deviations.
Friday, we started to hear the "R....." word....as in, 40% probability of recession....is that also +/- (insert very large number) standard deviation or forecasting error?
Quants now adjusting their models for +/- (insert very large number) standard deviations...
OK...statistical outliers and malfunctioning linear models (straight-line thinking) have quickly become boring topics.....where it once it was "Monday morning - oh , another 10 billion dollar private equity deal" has quickly turned to, "Monday morning, another hedge fund in trouble....." yawn..... How about some FREE STUFF?
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Maybe the market will settle into a range this week infront of FOMC meeting? Odds of that are N % =/- (insert very large number) standard deviations